All 6 cities • Contracts over $2,000 • Generated 22 Mar 2026 from Square API (98,847 invoices across 17,533 series)
Contracts where the customer deposited more than 10% of the contract value collect at 61.8% success rate. Those with 10% or less deposited collect at just 1.8% — effectively dead money. 64.4% of Group B customers miss their very first installment and never pay again. The deposit amount is the single strongest predictor of whether a contract will collect.
| Deposit Band | Contracts | Contract Value | Total Paid | Outstanding | Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% (nothing paid) | 341 | $1,148,109 | $0 | $1,148,109 | B |
| 1–5% | 7 | $26,729 | $717 | $26,012 | B |
| 6–10% | 40 | $120,107 | $10,537 | $109,570 | B |
| 11–25% | 452 | $1,162,203 | $203,777 | $958,426 | A |
| 26–50% | 543 | $1,525,690 | $593,905 | $931,785 | A |
| 51–75% | 373 | $1,034,316 | $655,708 | $378,608 | A |
| 76–100% | 899 | $2,317,173 | $2,147,742 | $169,431 | A |
Which installment number does each group first fail to pay?
| Installment | Count | % of Group |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | 207 | 9.1% |
| #2 | 248 | 10.9% |
| #3 | 226 | 10.0% |
| #4 | 188 | 8.3% |
| #5 | 132 | 5.8% |
| #6 | 130 | 5.7% |
| #7 | 133 | 5.9% |
| #8 | 139 | 6.1% |
| #9 | 140 | 6.2% |
| #10 | 135 | 6.0% |
| #11+ | 126 | 5.6% |
Gradual — spread evenly across first 10 installments
| Installment | Count | % of Group |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | 250 | 64.4% |
| #2 | 54 | 13.9% |
| #3 | 22 | 5.7% |
| #4 | 10 | 2.6% |
| #5 | 5 | 1.3% |
| #6 | 8 | 2.1% |
| #7 | 9 | 2.3% |
| #8 | 6 | 1.5% |
| #9 | 8 | 2.1% |
| #10+ | 9 | 2.3% |
Cliff — 64% gone at installment #1, 78% gone by #2
| City | Total | Group A (>10%) | Group A Value | Group B (≤10%) | Group B Value | B as % of City |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 393 | 260 | $600,614 | 133 | $461,311 | 33.8% |
| New York | 432 | 351 | $813,326 | 81 | $212,415 | 18.8% |
| Nashville | 541 | 469 | $1,310,386 | 72 | $267,451 | 13.3% |
| Florida | 678 | 628 | $1,738,807 | 50 | $178,794 | 7.4% |
| Boston | 583 | 538 | $1,520,035 | 45 | $154,683 | 7.7% |
| Chicago | 28 | 21 | $56,214 | 7 | $20,291 | 25.0% |
Texas has the highest concentration of Group B contracts — 33.8% of Texas contracts over $2K have ≤10% deposited, vs 7-8% in Boston and Florida. That's $461K in essentially uncollectable contract value.
| Contract Value | Total | Group A | Group B | B % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2,001 – $3,000 | 2,099 | 1,800 | 299 | 14.2% |
| $3,001 – $5,000 | 498 | 449 | 49 | 9.8% |
| $5,001 – $10,000 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 53.8% |
| $10,001+ | 19 | 0 | 19 | 100.0% |
Every single contract over $10K has ≤10% deposited — all 19 are Group B. And 54% of $5K-$10K contracts are Group B. The bigger the contract, the more likely it is to be uncollectable.
| Install # | Group A Rate | Group A (paid/total) | Group B Rate | Group B (paid/total) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 86.1% | 1,483 / 1,723 | 2.2% | 6 / 269 | +83.8 |
| #2 | 79.2% | 1,473 / 1,859 | 2.3% | 7 / 311 | +77.0 |
| #3 | 74.4% | 1,461 / 1,963 | 2.4% | 8 / 328 | +72.0 |
| #4 | 70.1% | 1,432 / 2,044 | 1.8% | 6 / 334 | +68.3 |
| #5 | 65.7% | 1,371 / 2,087 | 1.2% | 4 / 327 | +64.5 |
| #6 | 62.1% | 1,319 / 2,124 | 2.2% | 7 / 313 | +59.9 |
| #7 | 56.7% | 1,201 / 2,118 | 0.4% | 1 / 270 | +56.3 |
| #8 | 54.1% | 1,092 / 2,020 | 0.4% | 1 / 224 | +53.6 |
| #9 | 51.1% | 913 / 1,785 | 0.6% | 1 / 165 | +50.5 |
| #10 | 48.4% | 752 / 1,553 | 2.9% | 3 / 104 | +45.5 |
| #11 | 36.8% | 371 / 1,007 | 0.0% | 0 / 70 | +36.8 |
| #12 | 33.9% | 267 / 787 | 0.0% | 0 / 61 | +33.9 |