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Meta bid caps — what a lead, a booking and a show are worth, per city

KIDSX (child) and 1FX (adult) · value measured on leads 2026-03-01 → 2026-07-31, appointments and sales to date · cost last measured Jul 3–23 2026 · all figures USD · PMax (PX), GX, KX and Boost removed throughout — all stopped · built 2026-08-24
Benchmark
$350 / booking
Caps below target
11 of 13
Caps above the ceiling
0
Child ceiling / target
$43.13 / $30.66
Adult ceiling / target
$37.14 / $26.40
The three costs are different numbers. That is the whole point of this table. Set the benchmark and only one of them is fixed:
  • Cost per booking = $350. That is the benchmark itself — the same in every city.
  • Cost per show is HIGHER, because not every booking turns up. It is $350 × bookings-per-show. Boston books 1.42 times for every show, so a $350 booking is a $498 show.
  • Bid per lead is LOWER, because most leads never book. It is $350 × booking rate. Boston books 7.8% of leads, so a $350 booking means bidding $27.20 a lead.
BID PER LEAD is the number to give Hash. Everything on this page is US dollars. Hash's caps were given in GBP and converted at 1.3198 so they sit on the same axis; convert back for him when the bids are agreed.

At a $350 cost per booking — child (KIDSX)

City Book %Show %Bookings / show COST PER BOOKINGCOST PER SHOWBID PER LEAD Cap set todayRoom vs cap
Boston 7.8% 70.1% 1.42x $350 $498 $27.20 $19.80 +$7.41
Chicago 6.6% 72.2% 1.26x $350 $441 $23.07 $21.33 +$1.74
Dallas 9.2% 69.4% 1.32x $350 $461 $32.35 $19.78 +$12.57
Florida 6.4% 71.1% 1.45x $350 $507 $22.50 $18.79 +$3.71
Houston 6.9% 69.5% 1.30x $350 $454 $24.22 $21.29 +$2.93
Nashville 8.2% 62.9% 1.34x $350 $469 $28.78 $42.89 −$14.12
New York 6.7% 61.1% 1.53x $350 $534 $23.49 $19.45 +$4.04

At a $350 cost per booking — adult (1FX)

City Book %Show %Bookings / show COST PER BOOKINGCOST PER SHOWBID PER LEAD Cap set todayRoom vs cap
Boston 6.2% 67.4% 1.62x $350 $567 $21.85 $16.89 +$4.95
Chicago 7.4% 59.2% 1.41x $350 $494 $25.91 $15.81 +$10.09
Dallas 10.3% 70.1% 1.30x $350 $454 $36.10 $18.20 +$17.90
Florida 6.5% 56.9% 1.77x $350 $620 $22.85 $12.76 +$10.09
Orlando 6.6% 59.9% 1.56x $350 $547 $23.05
Houston 5.3% 63.6% 1.37x $350 $480 $18.58 $19.53 −$0.95
Nashville 10.4% 57.6% 1.79x $350 $628 $36.50 $21.02 +$15.47
New York 7.3% 57.1% 1.64x $350 $574 $25.38

Deviating from $350 — the BID PER LEAD each benchmark buys, child (KIDSX)

CityBook % $200$250$300$350$400$450$500$600
Boston 7.8% $15.54$19.43$23.32$27.20$31.09$34.97$38.86$46.63
Chicago 6.6% $13.18$16.48$19.77$23.07$26.36$29.66$32.95$39.54
Dallas 9.2% $18.49$23.11$27.73$32.35$36.97$41.59$46.21$55.46
Florida 6.4% $12.86$16.07$19.29$22.50$25.72$28.93$32.14$38.57
Houston 6.9% $13.84$17.30$20.76$24.22$27.68$31.14$34.60$41.52
Nashville 8.2% $16.44$20.55$24.66$28.78$32.89$37.00$41.11$49.33
New York 6.7% $13.42$16.78$20.14$23.49$26.85$30.20$33.56$40.27

Deviating from $350 — the BID PER LEAD each benchmark buys, adult (1FX)

CityBook % $200$250$300$350$400$450$500$600
Boston 6.2% $12.48$15.60$18.73$21.85$24.97$28.09$31.21$37.45
Chicago 7.4% $14.80$18.50$22.20$25.91$29.61$33.31$37.01$44.41
Dallas 10.3% $20.63$25.78$30.94$36.10$41.26$46.41$51.57$61.88
Florida 6.5% $13.06$16.32$19.58$22.85$26.11$29.38$32.64$39.17
Orlando 6.6% $13.17$16.47$19.76$23.05$26.35$29.64$32.93$39.52
Houston 5.3% $10.62$13.27$15.93$18.58$21.24$23.89$26.55$31.86
Nashville 10.4% $20.85$26.07$31.28$36.50$41.71$46.92$52.14$62.56
New York 7.3% $14.50$18.13$21.75$25.38$29.01$32.63$36.26$43.51

Deviating from $350 — the COST PER SHOW it produces, child (KIDSX)

CityBookings / show $200$250$300$350$400$450$500$600
Boston 1.42x $284$355$427$498$569$640$711$853
Chicago 1.26x $252$315$378$441$504$567$630$756
Dallas 1.32x $263$329$395$461$527$593$658$790
Florida 1.45x $290$362$434$507$579$652$724$869
Houston 1.30x $259$324$389$454$519$583$648$778
Nashville 1.34x $268$335$402$469$536$602$669$803
New York 1.53x $305$381$458$534$610$687$763$915

Deviating from $350 — the COST PER SHOW it produces, adult (1FX)

CityBookings / show $200$250$300$350$400$450$500$600
Boston 1.62x $324$405$486$567$648$729$810$972
Chicago 1.41x $282$353$423$494$564$635$705$846
Dallas 1.30x $260$325$390$454$519$584$649$779
Florida 1.77x $354$443$531$620$708$797$885$1,062
Orlando 1.56x $313$391$469$547$625$703$781$938
Houston 1.37x $274$343$411$480$549$617$686$823
Nashville 1.79x $359$449$538$628$718$807$897$1,076
New York 1.64x $328$410$492$574$656$738$820$984

The $350 column is outlined. Read across to price any other booking cost — every cell is that benchmark × the city's own booking rate (or bookings-per-show). "Room vs cap" is how much more we could bid than Hash's current cap and still hold $350. ⚠ marks a city with fewer than 40 sales, so its rates are noisy.

This is the mix we actually run, priced at a $350 booking. Every family is charged $350 × its own booking rate, so a family that books well earns a higher bid. The recycled pool is held at $1 a lead — it is our own pool worked again, not an ad buy.

The two rules agree. Pricing the real mix at a $350 booking costs $674,030 a month against $3,271,116 of revenue — that is 20.6% of revenue, against the 20% we aim at. Put the other way round, the booking cost that spends exactly 20% of revenue is $340. $350 and the 20% rule are the same rule, within 3%.

The actual, per city

CityLeads / monthBlended bid Ad spend / monthRevenue / month % of revenue
Florida 8,975 $16.24 $145,749 $734,388 19.8%
Chicago 6,403 $12.56 $80,454 $369,176 21.8%
Houston 6,131 $13.35 $81,829 $449,000 18.2%
Dallas 6,041 $15.46 $93,399 $423,965 22.0%
New York 5,540 $12.80 $70,887 $380,570 18.6%
Boston 4,638 $16.51 $76,587 $333,388 23.0%
Orlando 4,569 $12.97 $59,240 $256,964 23.1%
Nashville 4,202 $15.68 $65,885 $323,666 20.4%
ALL46,499 $14.50 $674,030$3,271,116 20.6%

The bid to ask for — every city and family, at a $350 booking

CityKIDSX1FXSNAPAlanLead ProntoRecycled pool
Florida$22.75 3,964 leads$22.85 786 leads$22.13 142 leads$18.56 1,157 leads$13.66 794 leads$1.00 2,132 leads
Chicago$22.28 1,178 leads$25.91 635 leads$15.88 323 leads$12.30 1,537 leads$14.87 792 leads$1.00 1,937 leads
Houston$23.61 1,576 leads$18.58 301 leads$15.70 253 leads$13.11 1,620 leads$14.96 819 leads$1.00 1,562 leads
Dallas$30.61 789 leads$36.10 520 leads$21.41 283 leads$16.93 2,020 leads$11.67 730 leads$1.00 1,699 leads
New York$24.14 1,725 leads$25.38 483 leads$13.75 348 leads$12.74 549 leads$11.50 264 leads$1.00 2,171 leads
Boston$27.91 1,195 leads$21.85 251 leads$21.08 183 leads$14.45 1,082 leads$20.83 823 leads$1.00 1,104 leads
Orlando$23.05 886 leads$23.71 187 leads$10.37 1,035 leads$18.61 1,204 leads$1.00 1,257 leads
Nashville$27.10 831 leads$36.50 195 leads$15.91 154 leads$14.88 972 leads$22.65 798 leads$1.00 1,252 leads

This is the price list. Each cell is what that family in that city is worth paying at a $350 booking, with its actual monthly volume underneath so you can see what the bid is buying. Multiply the two and you get the spend column above.

MAX is the ceiling — pay it and the lead contributes nothing. TARGET is 71% of the ceiling, the margin the business runs at today. These come from what the lead is worth, not from a percentage off last month's price.

A bid cap is not a CPL. Under Meta's bid cap the delivered CPL normally lands under the cap, so the cap belongs a little above the target. We hold no cap-versus-delivered history, so that gap is the one number on this page that is not measured — see Method.

Child — KIDSX

CityMAX bid (ceiling)TARGET bid Cap set todayActually paid, Jul Where the cap sits
Boston $42.57 $30.26 $19.80 $34.21 capped 35% under target — throttling volume
Chicago $43.63 $31.02 $21.33 $23.36 capped 31% under target — throttling volume
Dallas $62.98 $44.77 $19.78 $22.10 capped 56% under target — throttling volume
Florida $40.08 $28.49 $18.79 $9.89 capped 34% under target — throttling volume
Houston $45.22 $32.15 $21.29 $15.77 capped 34% under target — throttling volume
Nashville $49.97 $35.52 $42.89 $26.02 above target, under ceiling
New York $35.27 $25.07 $19.45 $9.69 capped 22% under target — throttling volume
ALL KIDSX $43.13$30.66

Adult — 1FX

CityMAX bid (ceiling)TARGET bid Cap set todayActually paid, Jul Where the cap sits
Boston $37.97 $26.99 $16.89 $20.36 capped 37% under target — throttling volume
Chicago $40.69 $28.93 $15.81 $16.42 capped 45% under target — throttling volume
Dallas $52.65 $37.43 $18.20 $22.80 capped 51% under target — throttling volume
Florida $28.26 $20.09 $12.76 $14.02 capped 36% under target — throttling volume
Orlando $41.75 $29.68 no cap set
Houston $29.65 $21.08 $19.53 $15.56 about right
Nashville $33.08 $23.51 $21.02 $11.48 capped 11% under target — throttling volume
New York $27.64 $19.65 $13.95 no cap set
ALL 1FX $37.14$26.40

Our adult codes split Florida into FL* (Parkland/Miami) and ORL* (Orlando). Hash's sheet has a "Florida" row and a "Miami (adult)" row, which do not map onto that split one-to-one, so the Miami cap is not shown against a city. New York adult is paused on his sheet; its ceiling is shown anyway because it was profitable.

Child — KIDSX, what we actually paid per lead, per city

City2026-042026-052026-06Jul 3–23 ChangeTARGETMAX
Boston$9.03$12.60$19.99$34.21 +279% $30.26 $42.57
Chicago$7.88$9.79$12.11$23.36 +197% $31.02 $43.63
Dallas$11.78$13.11$9.30$22.10 +88% $44.77 $62.98
Florida$3.50$4.69$6.01$9.89 +183% $28.49 $40.08
Houston$4.72$7.19$5.39$15.77 +234% $32.15 $45.22
Nashville$11.16$17.92$23.76$26.02 +133% $35.52 $49.97
New York$4.33$7.17$8.23$9.69 +124% $25.07 $35.27

Adult — 1FX, what we actually paid per lead, per city

City2026-042026-052026-06Jul 3–23 ChangeTARGETMAX
Boston$12.71$9.53$20.36 +60% $26.99 $37.97
Chicago$10.19$9.39$16.42 +61% $28.93 $40.69
Dallas$9.52$11.48$22.80 +139% $37.43 $52.65
Florida$8.60$13.14$14.02 +63% $20.09 $28.26
Orlando$7.54$6.95 -8% $29.68 $41.75
Houston$9.71$6.14$15.56 +60% $21.08 $29.65
Nashville$13.45$10.01$11.48 -15% $23.51 $33.08
New York$6.58$7.51$13.95 +112% $19.65 $27.64

Apr–Jun is the per-campaign daily feed, the only source that splits spend by city and segment (and the only one carrying Orlando adult — Orlando has no KIDSX campaign). "Jul 3–23" is three Fri–Thu weeks, not a calendar month: a like-for-like CPL but not a like-for-like volume. Between 1 and 5% of lead rows in the daily feed carry no spend figure, so the Apr–Jun columns read slightly cheap — the rise is real, its base is a touch understated. Nothing after 23 July: the supplier cost logins lapsed.

Child — KIDSX

CityLeadsBookedShowed SoldPer saleCash on the day Banked / leadvs national
Boston 4,336 337 7.8% 237 70.1% 163 78.7% $2,484 $992 $60.52 1.71x
Chicago 4,264 281 6.6% 223 72.2% 150 73.5% $2,586 $1,182 $62.03 1.76x
Dallas 2,878 266 9.2% 202 69.4% 129 68.3% $2,667 $1,525 $89.53 2.54x
Florida 13,377 860 6.4% 594 71.1% 383 72.1% $2,934 $1,324 $56.98 1.61x
Houston 5,751 398 6.9% 307 69.5% 209 71.6% $2,991 $906 $64.29 1.82x
Nashville 2,980 245 8.2% 183 62.9% 130 78.8% $2,500 $1,013 $71.04 2.01x
New York 6,183 415 6.7% 272 61.1% 178 71.5% $2,756 $1,025 $50.14 1.42x
ALL39,769 2,802 7.0% 2,018 68.4% 1,342 73.1% $2,758$1,152 $61.31 1.74x

Adult — 1FX

CityLeadsBookedShowed SoldPer saleCash on the day Banked / leadvs national
Boston 753 47 6.2% 29 67.4% 22 78.6% $2,768 $1,197 $53.98 1.53x
Chicago 1,905 141 7.4% 100 59.2% 70 70.0% $2,357 $1,021 $57.85 1.64x
Dallas 1,561 161 10.3% 124 70.1% 76 63.9% $2,239 $1,041 $74.85 2.12x
Florida 2,359 154 6.5% 87 56.9% 51 65.4% $2,899 $1,123 $40.17 1.14x
Orlando 2,657 175 6.6% 112 59.9% 80 72.7% $3,092 $1,180 $59.35 1.68x
Houston 904 48 5.3% 35 63.6% 21 60.0% $3,410 $688 $42.16 1.19x
Nashville 585 61 10.4% 34 57.6% 24 72.7% $1,869 $636 $47.02 1.33x
New York 1,448 105 7.3% 64 57.1% 41 73.2% $2,159 $843 $39.29 1.11x
ALL12,172 892 7.3% 585 61.3% 385 68.9% $2,588$1,020 $52.80 1.50x

Banked per lead = cash on the day + 41.4% of the financed balance, divided by leads bought. The national fresh-lead average over the same window is $35.31 — the "vs national" column is the index every ceiling is built from.

The baseline: 46,499 leads a month — 33,386 bought and 13,113 out of our own recycled pool — across 6 source families and 8 cities, averaged over 2026-05, 2026-06, 2026-07. Hold this volume and mix fixed and every price scenario becomes comparable.

The mix is doing most of the work. KIDSX is 24.2% of leads but 39.6% of revenue — $92.59 a lead against a $56.63 average. The recycled pool returns $28.85 a lead and costs about a dollar. Moving spend between families is worth more than moving the price within one.

The split by source family — what we buy and what it returns

Source familyPlatformLeads / month Leads (share)Book % Show %Sales Revenue (share) Revenue / leadvs average
KIDSX — child Meta 11,259 33,776 24.2% 7.0% 68.4% 1,128 $3,127,413 39.6% $92.59 1.64x
1FX — adult Meta 4,057 12,172 8.7% 7.3% 61.3% 385 $996,251 12.6% $81.85 1.45x
SNAP Snapchat 1,873 5,620 4.0% 5.2% 53.4% 122 $344,550 4.4% $61.31 1.08x
Alan mixed 9,972 29,916 21.4% 4.1% 57.3% 561 $1,398,822 17.7% $46.76 0.83x
Lead Pronto mixed 6,224 18,673 13.4% 4.8% 58.4% 355 $897,435 11.4% $48.06 0.85x
Recycled pool own 13,113 39,339 28.2% 3.1% 51.3% 429 $1,134,894 14.4% $28.85 0.51x
ALL 46,499 139,496 100.0% 4.9% 60.4% 2,980 $7,899,365 100.0% $56.631.00x

The split by city

CityLeads / month Leads (share) Revenue (share) Book %Revenue / leadvs average
Florida 8,975 26,926 19.3% $1,719,089 21.8% 5.4% $63.84 1.13x
Chicago 6,403 19,209 13.8% $935,683 11.8% 4.4% $48.71 0.86x
Houston 6,131 18,392 13.2% $1,155,799 14.6% 4.3% $62.84 1.11x
Dallas 6,041 18,123 13.0% $1,002,794 12.7% 4.9% $55.33 0.98x
New York 5,540 16,619 11.9% $878,459 11.1% 5.1% $52.86 0.93x
Boston 4,638 13,914 10.0% $760,004 9.6% 5.4% $54.62 0.96x
Orlando 4,569 13,706 9.8% $714,560 9.0% 4.5% $52.13 0.92x
Nashville 4,202 12,607 9.0% $732,977 9.3% 5.2% $58.14 1.03x

Leads per month by city and family — the volume to hold constant

CityKIDSX1FXSNAPAlanLead ProntoRecycled pool TOTAL
Florida3,9647861421,1577942,1328,975
Chicago1,1786353231,5377921,9376,403
Houston1,5763012531,6208191,5626,131
Dallas7895202832,0207301,6996,041
New York1,7254833485492642,1715,540
Boston1,1952511831,0828231,1044,638
Orlando8861871,0351,2041,2574,569
Nashville8311951549727981,2524,202
ALL11,2594,0571,8739,9726,22413,113 46,499

Is the mix drifting? August to the 24th vs the baseline

Source familyBaseline share Aug to 24thMove
KIDSX — child 24.2%23.2% -1.0pt
1FX — adult 8.7%12.7% +3.9pt
SNAP 4.0%4.5% +0.5pt
Alan 21.4%16.4% -5.0pt
Lead Pronto 13.4%12.8% -0.6pt
Recycled pool 28.2%30.4% +2.2pt

August is not in the baseline — a part month whose shoots have not landed. It is here only to show whether the mix has moved since. Two things stand out: PMax has been all but switched off (1.9% → 0.1%) and Boost has stopped entirely, while Meta adult and the recycled pool have taken up the slack.

One caveat on the revenue in these tables. A sale only counts here if it joins back to a lead inside the pull window, so revenue reads about 16% lower than the all-sales figure on the sliding-scale tab ($2,633,122/month against $2.9M–$3.4M). Sales from leads that arrived before March cannot be attributed to a source. The shares and the per-lead figures are the reliable read here; use the sliding-scale tab for absolute revenue. Lead counts are exact — they are counted on arrival, not joined.
Which revenue you apply the % to changes the answer by two-thirds. 20% of what we write and 20% of what we bank are different rules — at a 63% collection rate the second is 37% smaller. The default here is contracted, because that is the number the 20% rule has always been quoted against and it lands within pennies of what we actually pay. Switch the dropdown to see the other.

This is the budget, not the bid. The allowable CPL below is the average across every lead a city buys, from every supplier. A KIDSX lead is worth more than that average and a PMax lead much less, so this number sizes the pot — the value model on the other tabs decides how to split it.

Back-dated month by month — the allowable CPL each month would have carried

August is excluded from the totals above: it is a part month (to the 24th) and its shoots have not all happened, so its revenue reads short. It is shown here for completeness only.

How the ceiling is worked out

1. Measure the funnel. Every fresh KIDSX and 1FX lead from 2026-03-01 to 2026-07-31, followed through bookings → on-calendar → showed → seen → sold, joined on name + marketing code, each feed row consumed once. Same joins as /distance-age.

2. Turn contracted into banked. A sale is worth what we collect: cash on the day banks in full, the financed balance banks at 41.4%.

3. Index against the national average and scale the known ceiling. The P&L anchor signed off 21 Aug is $24.84 lifetime contribution per lead against $17.66 paid ($3.5M contracted → $2.205M banked, $1.9M cost of which $750k ads, 42,470 leads/month). Each city's ceiling is $24.84 × (its banked per lead ÷ the national $35.31).

4. Target = 71% of ceiling — exactly the ratio the business runs at today.

Where it could be wrong

The one number we are missing

For each ad set: the cap Hash set, and the CPL it actually delivered. That pairing turns every target here into a cap he can type in. Without it, the step from target CPL to bid cap is the only assumption on the page our own data cannot settle.