| City | Book % | Show % | Bookings / show | COST PER BOOKING | COST PER SHOW | BID PER LEAD | Cap set today | Room vs cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 7.8% | 70.1% | 1.42x | $350 | $498 | $27.20 | $19.80 | +$7.41 |
| Chicago | 6.6% | 72.2% | 1.26x | $350 | $441 | $23.07 | $21.33 | +$1.74 |
| Dallas | 9.2% | 69.4% | 1.32x | $350 | $461 | $32.35 | $19.78 | +$12.57 |
| Florida | 6.4% | 71.1% | 1.45x | $350 | $507 | $22.50 | $18.79 | +$3.71 |
| Houston | 6.9% | 69.5% | 1.30x | $350 | $454 | $24.22 | $21.29 | +$2.93 |
| Nashville | 8.2% | 62.9% | 1.34x | $350 | $469 | $28.78 | $42.89 | −$14.12 |
| New York | 6.7% | 61.1% | 1.53x | $350 | $534 | $23.49 | $19.45 | +$4.04 |
| City | Book % | Show % | Bookings / show | COST PER BOOKING | COST PER SHOW | BID PER LEAD | Cap set today | Room vs cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston ⚠ | 6.2% | 67.4% | 1.62x | $350 | $567 | $21.85 | $16.89 | +$4.95 |
| Chicago | 7.4% | 59.2% | 1.41x | $350 | $494 | $25.91 | $15.81 | +$10.09 |
| Dallas | 10.3% | 70.1% | 1.30x | $350 | $454 | $36.10 | $18.20 | +$17.90 |
| Florida | 6.5% | 56.9% | 1.77x | $350 | $620 | $22.85 | $12.76 | +$10.09 |
| Orlando | 6.6% | 59.9% | 1.56x | $350 | $547 | $23.05 | — | — |
| Houston ⚠ | 5.3% | 63.6% | 1.37x | $350 | $480 | $18.58 | $19.53 | −$0.95 |
| Nashville ⚠ | 10.4% | 57.6% | 1.79x | $350 | $628 | $36.50 | $21.02 | +$15.47 |
| New York | 7.3% | 57.1% | 1.64x | $350 | $574 | $25.38 | — | — |
| City | Book % | $200 | $250 | $300 | $350 | $400 | $450 | $500 | $600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 7.8% | $15.54 | $19.43 | $23.32 | $27.20 | $31.09 | $34.97 | $38.86 | $46.63 |
| Chicago | 6.6% | $13.18 | $16.48 | $19.77 | $23.07 | $26.36 | $29.66 | $32.95 | $39.54 |
| Dallas | 9.2% | $18.49 | $23.11 | $27.73 | $32.35 | $36.97 | $41.59 | $46.21 | $55.46 |
| Florida | 6.4% | $12.86 | $16.07 | $19.29 | $22.50 | $25.72 | $28.93 | $32.14 | $38.57 |
| Houston | 6.9% | $13.84 | $17.30 | $20.76 | $24.22 | $27.68 | $31.14 | $34.60 | $41.52 |
| Nashville | 8.2% | $16.44 | $20.55 | $24.66 | $28.78 | $32.89 | $37.00 | $41.11 | $49.33 |
| New York | 6.7% | $13.42 | $16.78 | $20.14 | $23.49 | $26.85 | $30.20 | $33.56 | $40.27 |
| City | Book % | $200 | $250 | $300 | $350 | $400 | $450 | $500 | $600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston ⚠ | 6.2% | $12.48 | $15.60 | $18.73 | $21.85 | $24.97 | $28.09 | $31.21 | $37.45 |
| Chicago | 7.4% | $14.80 | $18.50 | $22.20 | $25.91 | $29.61 | $33.31 | $37.01 | $44.41 |
| Dallas | 10.3% | $20.63 | $25.78 | $30.94 | $36.10 | $41.26 | $46.41 | $51.57 | $61.88 |
| Florida | 6.5% | $13.06 | $16.32 | $19.58 | $22.85 | $26.11 | $29.38 | $32.64 | $39.17 |
| Orlando | 6.6% | $13.17 | $16.47 | $19.76 | $23.05 | $26.35 | $29.64 | $32.93 | $39.52 |
| Houston ⚠ | 5.3% | $10.62 | $13.27 | $15.93 | $18.58 | $21.24 | $23.89 | $26.55 | $31.86 |
| Nashville ⚠ | 10.4% | $20.85 | $26.07 | $31.28 | $36.50 | $41.71 | $46.92 | $52.14 | $62.56 |
| New York | 7.3% | $14.50 | $18.13 | $21.75 | $25.38 | $29.01 | $32.63 | $36.26 | $43.51 |
| City | Bookings / show | $200 | $250 | $300 | $350 | $400 | $450 | $500 | $600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 1.42x | $284 | $355 | $427 | $498 | $569 | $640 | $711 | $853 |
| Chicago | 1.26x | $252 | $315 | $378 | $441 | $504 | $567 | $630 | $756 |
| Dallas | 1.32x | $263 | $329 | $395 | $461 | $527 | $593 | $658 | $790 |
| Florida | 1.45x | $290 | $362 | $434 | $507 | $579 | $652 | $724 | $869 |
| Houston | 1.30x | $259 | $324 | $389 | $454 | $519 | $583 | $648 | $778 |
| Nashville | 1.34x | $268 | $335 | $402 | $469 | $536 | $602 | $669 | $803 |
| New York | 1.53x | $305 | $381 | $458 | $534 | $610 | $687 | $763 | $915 |
| City | Bookings / show | $200 | $250 | $300 | $350 | $400 | $450 | $500 | $600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston ⚠ | 1.62x | $324 | $405 | $486 | $567 | $648 | $729 | $810 | $972 |
| Chicago | 1.41x | $282 | $353 | $423 | $494 | $564 | $635 | $705 | $846 |
| Dallas | 1.30x | $260 | $325 | $390 | $454 | $519 | $584 | $649 | $779 |
| Florida | 1.77x | $354 | $443 | $531 | $620 | $708 | $797 | $885 | $1,062 |
| Orlando | 1.56x | $313 | $391 | $469 | $547 | $625 | $703 | $781 | $938 |
| Houston ⚠ | 1.37x | $274 | $343 | $411 | $480 | $549 | $617 | $686 | $823 |
| Nashville ⚠ | 1.79x | $359 | $449 | $538 | $628 | $718 | $807 | $897 | $1,076 |
| New York | 1.64x | $328 | $410 | $492 | $574 | $656 | $738 | $820 | $984 |
The $350 column is outlined. Read across to price any other booking cost — every cell is that benchmark × the city's own booking rate (or bookings-per-show). "Room vs cap" is how much more we could bid than Hash's current cap and still hold $350. ⚠ marks a city with fewer than 40 sales, so its rates are noisy.
| City | Leads / month | Blended bid | Ad spend / month | Revenue / month | % of revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 8,975 | $16.24 | $145,749 | $734,388 | 19.8% |
| Chicago | 6,403 | $12.56 | $80,454 | $369,176 | 21.8% |
| Houston | 6,131 | $13.35 | $81,829 | $449,000 | 18.2% |
| Dallas | 6,041 | $15.46 | $93,399 | $423,965 | 22.0% |
| New York | 5,540 | $12.80 | $70,887 | $380,570 | 18.6% |
| Boston | 4,638 | $16.51 | $76,587 | $333,388 | 23.0% |
| Orlando | 4,569 | $12.97 | $59,240 | $256,964 | 23.1% |
| Nashville | 4,202 | $15.68 | $65,885 | $323,666 | 20.4% |
| ALL | 46,499 | $14.50 | $674,030 | $3,271,116 | 20.6% |
| City | KIDSX | 1FX | SNAP | Alan | Lead Pronto | Recycled pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | $22.75 3,964 leads | $22.85 786 leads | $22.13 142 leads | $18.56 1,157 leads | $13.66 794 leads | $1.00 2,132 leads |
| Chicago | $22.28 1,178 leads | $25.91 635 leads | $15.88 323 leads | $12.30 1,537 leads | $14.87 792 leads | $1.00 1,937 leads |
| Houston | $23.61 1,576 leads | $18.58 301 leads | $15.70 253 leads | $13.11 1,620 leads | $14.96 819 leads | $1.00 1,562 leads |
| Dallas | $30.61 789 leads | $36.10 520 leads | $21.41 283 leads | $16.93 2,020 leads | $11.67 730 leads | $1.00 1,699 leads |
| New York | $24.14 1,725 leads | $25.38 483 leads | $13.75 348 leads | $12.74 549 leads | $11.50 264 leads | $1.00 2,171 leads |
| Boston | $27.91 1,195 leads | $21.85 251 leads | $21.08 183 leads | $14.45 1,082 leads | $20.83 823 leads | $1.00 1,104 leads |
| Orlando | — | $23.05 886 leads | $23.71 187 leads | $10.37 1,035 leads | $18.61 1,204 leads | $1.00 1,257 leads |
| Nashville | $27.10 831 leads | $36.50 195 leads | $15.91 154 leads | $14.88 972 leads | $22.65 798 leads | $1.00 1,252 leads |
This is the price list. Each cell is what that family in that city is worth paying at a $350 booking, with its actual monthly volume underneath so you can see what the bid is buying. Multiply the two and you get the spend column above.
| City | MAX bid (ceiling) | TARGET bid | Cap set today | Actually paid, Jul | Where the cap sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | $42.57 | $30.26 | $19.80 | $34.21 | capped 35% under target — throttling volume |
| Chicago | $43.63 | $31.02 | $21.33 | $23.36 | capped 31% under target — throttling volume |
| Dallas | $62.98 | $44.77 | $19.78 | $22.10 | capped 56% under target — throttling volume |
| Florida | $40.08 | $28.49 | $18.79 | $9.89 | capped 34% under target — throttling volume |
| Houston | $45.22 | $32.15 | $21.29 | $15.77 | capped 34% under target — throttling volume |
| Nashville | $49.97 | $35.52 | $42.89 | $26.02 | above target, under ceiling |
| New York | $35.27 | $25.07 | $19.45 | $9.69 | capped 22% under target — throttling volume |
| ALL KIDSX | $43.13 | $30.66 | — | — |
| City | MAX bid (ceiling) | TARGET bid | Cap set today | Actually paid, Jul | Where the cap sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston ⚠ | $37.97 | $26.99 | $16.89 | $20.36 | capped 37% under target — throttling volume |
| Chicago | $40.69 | $28.93 | $15.81 | $16.42 | capped 45% under target — throttling volume |
| Dallas | $52.65 | $37.43 | $18.20 | $22.80 | capped 51% under target — throttling volume |
| Florida | $28.26 | $20.09 | $12.76 | $14.02 | capped 36% under target — throttling volume |
| Orlando | $41.75 | $29.68 | — | — | no cap set |
| Houston ⚠ | $29.65 | $21.08 | $19.53 | $15.56 | about right |
| Nashville ⚠ | $33.08 | $23.51 | $21.02 | $11.48 | capped 11% under target — throttling volume |
| New York | $27.64 | $19.65 | — | $13.95 | no cap set |
| ALL 1FX | $37.14 | $26.40 | — | — |
Our adult codes split Florida into FL* (Parkland/Miami) and ORL* (Orlando). Hash's sheet has a "Florida" row and a "Miami (adult)" row, which do not map onto that split one-to-one, so the Miami cap is not shown against a city. New York adult is paused on his sheet; its ceiling is shown anyway because it was profitable.
| City | 2026-04 | 2026-05 | 2026-06 | Jul 3–23 | Change | TARGET | MAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | $9.03 | $12.60 | $19.99 | $34.21 | +279% | $30.26 | $42.57 |
| Chicago | $7.88 | $9.79 | $12.11 | $23.36 | +197% | $31.02 | $43.63 |
| Dallas | $11.78 | $13.11 | $9.30 | $22.10 | +88% | $44.77 | $62.98 |
| Florida | $3.50 | $4.69 | $6.01 | $9.89 | +183% | $28.49 | $40.08 |
| Houston | $4.72 | $7.19 | $5.39 | $15.77 | +234% | $32.15 | $45.22 |
| Nashville | $11.16 | $17.92 | $23.76 | $26.02 | +133% | $35.52 | $49.97 |
| New York | $4.33 | $7.17 | $8.23 | $9.69 | +124% | $25.07 | $35.27 |
| City | 2026-04 | 2026-05 | 2026-06 | Jul 3–23 | Change | TARGET | MAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | — | $12.71 | $9.53 | $20.36 | +60% | $26.99 | $37.97 |
| Chicago | — | $10.19 | $9.39 | $16.42 | +61% | $28.93 | $40.69 |
| Dallas | — | $9.52 | $11.48 | $22.80 | +139% | $37.43 | $52.65 |
| Florida | — | $8.60 | $13.14 | $14.02 | +63% | $20.09 | $28.26 |
| Orlando | — | $7.54 | $6.95 | — | -8% | $29.68 | $41.75 |
| Houston | — | $9.71 | $6.14 | $15.56 | +60% | $21.08 | $29.65 |
| Nashville | — | $13.45 | $10.01 | $11.48 | -15% | $23.51 | $33.08 |
| New York | — | $6.58 | $7.51 | $13.95 | +112% | $19.65 | $27.64 |
Apr–Jun is the per-campaign daily feed, the only source that splits spend by city and segment (and the only one carrying Orlando adult — Orlando has no KIDSX campaign). "Jul 3–23" is three Fri–Thu weeks, not a calendar month: a like-for-like CPL but not a like-for-like volume. Between 1 and 5% of lead rows in the daily feed carry no spend figure, so the Apr–Jun columns read slightly cheap — the rise is real, its base is a touch understated. Nothing after 23 July: the supplier cost logins lapsed.
| City | Leads | Booked | Showed | Sold | Per sale | Cash on the day | Banked / lead | vs national |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 4,336 | 337 7.8% | 237 70.1% | 163 78.7% | $2,484 | $992 | $60.52 | 1.71x |
| Chicago | 4,264 | 281 6.6% | 223 72.2% | 150 73.5% | $2,586 | $1,182 | $62.03 | 1.76x |
| Dallas | 2,878 | 266 9.2% | 202 69.4% | 129 68.3% | $2,667 | $1,525 | $89.53 | 2.54x |
| Florida | 13,377 | 860 6.4% | 594 71.1% | 383 72.1% | $2,934 | $1,324 | $56.98 | 1.61x |
| Houston | 5,751 | 398 6.9% | 307 69.5% | 209 71.6% | $2,991 | $906 | $64.29 | 1.82x |
| Nashville | 2,980 | 245 8.2% | 183 62.9% | 130 78.8% | $2,500 | $1,013 | $71.04 | 2.01x |
| New York | 6,183 | 415 6.7% | 272 61.1% | 178 71.5% | $2,756 | $1,025 | $50.14 | 1.42x |
| ALL | 39,769 | 2,802 7.0% | 2,018 68.4% | 1,342 73.1% | $2,758 | $1,152 | $61.31 | 1.74x |
| City | Leads | Booked | Showed | Sold | Per sale | Cash on the day | Banked / lead | vs national |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston ⚠ | 753 | 47 6.2% | 29 67.4% | 22 78.6% | $2,768 | $1,197 | $53.98 | 1.53x |
| Chicago | 1,905 | 141 7.4% | 100 59.2% | 70 70.0% | $2,357 | $1,021 | $57.85 | 1.64x |
| Dallas | 1,561 | 161 10.3% | 124 70.1% | 76 63.9% | $2,239 | $1,041 | $74.85 | 2.12x |
| Florida | 2,359 | 154 6.5% | 87 56.9% | 51 65.4% | $2,899 | $1,123 | $40.17 | 1.14x |
| Orlando | 2,657 | 175 6.6% | 112 59.9% | 80 72.7% | $3,092 | $1,180 | $59.35 | 1.68x |
| Houston ⚠ | 904 | 48 5.3% | 35 63.6% | 21 60.0% | $3,410 | $688 | $42.16 | 1.19x |
| Nashville ⚠ | 585 | 61 10.4% | 34 57.6% | 24 72.7% | $1,869 | $636 | $47.02 | 1.33x |
| New York | 1,448 | 105 7.3% | 64 57.1% | 41 73.2% | $2,159 | $843 | $39.29 | 1.11x |
| ALL | 12,172 | 892 7.3% | 585 61.3% | 385 68.9% | $2,588 | $1,020 | $52.80 | 1.50x |
Banked per lead = cash on the day + 41.4% of the financed balance, divided by leads bought. The national fresh-lead average over the same window is $35.31 — the "vs national" column is the index every ceiling is built from.
| Source family | Platform | Leads / month | Leads (share) | Book % | Show % | Sales | Revenue (share) | Revenue / lead | vs average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KIDSX — child | Meta | 11,259 | 33,776 24.2% | 7.0% | 68.4% | 1,128 | $3,127,413 39.6% | $92.59 | 1.64x |
| 1FX — adult | Meta | 4,057 | 12,172 8.7% | 7.3% | 61.3% | 385 | $996,251 12.6% | $81.85 | 1.45x |
| SNAP | Snapchat | 1,873 | 5,620 4.0% | 5.2% | 53.4% | 122 | $344,550 4.4% | $61.31 | 1.08x |
| Alan | mixed | 9,972 | 29,916 21.4% | 4.1% | 57.3% | 561 | $1,398,822 17.7% | $46.76 | 0.83x |
| Lead Pronto | mixed | 6,224 | 18,673 13.4% | 4.8% | 58.4% | 355 | $897,435 11.4% | $48.06 | 0.85x |
| Recycled pool | own | 13,113 | 39,339 28.2% | 3.1% | 51.3% | 429 | $1,134,894 14.4% | $28.85 | 0.51x |
| ALL | — | 46,499 | 139,496 100.0% | 4.9% | 60.4% | 2,980 | $7,899,365 100.0% | $56.63 | 1.00x |
| City | Leads / month | Leads (share) | Revenue (share) | Book % | Revenue / lead | vs average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 8,975 | 26,926 19.3% | $1,719,089 21.8% | 5.4% | $63.84 | 1.13x |
| Chicago | 6,403 | 19,209 13.8% | $935,683 11.8% | 4.4% | $48.71 | 0.86x |
| Houston | 6,131 | 18,392 13.2% | $1,155,799 14.6% | 4.3% | $62.84 | 1.11x |
| Dallas | 6,041 | 18,123 13.0% | $1,002,794 12.7% | 4.9% | $55.33 | 0.98x |
| New York | 5,540 | 16,619 11.9% | $878,459 11.1% | 5.1% | $52.86 | 0.93x |
| Boston | 4,638 | 13,914 10.0% | $760,004 9.6% | 5.4% | $54.62 | 0.96x |
| Orlando | 4,569 | 13,706 9.8% | $714,560 9.0% | 4.5% | $52.13 | 0.92x |
| Nashville | 4,202 | 12,607 9.0% | $732,977 9.3% | 5.2% | $58.14 | 1.03x |
| City | KIDSX | 1FX | SNAP | Alan | Lead Pronto | Recycled pool | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 3,964 | 786 | 142 | 1,157 | 794 | 2,132 | 8,975 |
| Chicago | 1,178 | 635 | 323 | 1,537 | 792 | 1,937 | 6,403 |
| Houston | 1,576 | 301 | 253 | 1,620 | 819 | 1,562 | 6,131 |
| Dallas | 789 | 520 | 283 | 2,020 | 730 | 1,699 | 6,041 |
| New York | 1,725 | 483 | 348 | 549 | 264 | 2,171 | 5,540 |
| Boston | 1,195 | 251 | 183 | 1,082 | 823 | 1,104 | 4,638 |
| Orlando | — | 886 | 187 | 1,035 | 1,204 | 1,257 | 4,569 |
| Nashville | 831 | 195 | 154 | 972 | 798 | 1,252 | 4,202 |
| ALL | 11,259 | 4,057 | 1,873 | 9,972 | 6,224 | 13,113 | 46,499 |
| Source family | Baseline share | Aug to 24th | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| KIDSX — child | 24.2% | 23.2% | -1.0pt |
| 1FX — adult | 8.7% | 12.7% | +3.9pt |
| SNAP | 4.0% | 4.5% | +0.5pt |
| Alan | 21.4% | 16.4% | -5.0pt |
| Lead Pronto | 13.4% | 12.8% | -0.6pt |
| Recycled pool | 28.2% | 30.4% | +2.2pt |
August is not in the baseline — a part month whose shoots have not landed. It is here only to show whether the mix has moved since. Two things stand out: PMax has been all but switched off (1.9% → 0.1%) and Boost has stopped entirely, while Meta adult and the recycled pool have taken up the slack.
August is excluded from the totals above: it is a part month (to the 24th) and its shoots have not all happened, so its revenue reads short. It is shown here for completeness only.
1. Measure the funnel. Every fresh KIDSX and 1FX lead from 2026-03-01 to 2026-07-31, followed through bookings → on-calendar → showed → seen → sold, joined on name + marketing code, each feed row consumed once. Same joins as /distance-age.
2. Turn contracted into banked. A sale is worth what we collect: cash on the day banks in full, the financed balance banks at 41.4%.
3. Index against the national average and scale the known ceiling. The P&L anchor signed off 21 Aug is $24.84 lifetime contribution per lead against $17.66 paid ($3.5M contracted → $2.205M banked, $1.9M cost of which $750k ads, 42,470 leads/month). Each city's ceiling is $24.84 × (its banked per lead ÷ the national $35.31).
4. Target = 71% of ceiling — exactly the ratio the business runs at today.