Outreach Impact — 17 September 2026

Generated 17 September 2026 — outreach pipeline customers vs everyone else, across 6 Square markets · GHL sub-account nYnvjp6gNOEPRj4yDuAU

SIGNAL: NEGATIVE

On the fairest like-for-like comparison — recent sales that were worked by outreach vs recent sales that slipped past it — worked customers reach their crucial 2nd payment 37.6% of the time vs 40.5% for the un-worked group (-2.9 pp). The lift is strongest in Boston (+7 pp). New York currently runs the other way (-11 pp) and needs a look. Sample sizes are still maturing (only 311 outreach customers have had their 2nd payment fall due), so treat this as a directional early read, not a final verdict. Against the much older pre-outreach baseline outreach looks lower — expected, because outreach customers are far newer and earlier in their payment lifecycle.

1st payment made

51.5%

vs 56.1% recent not-worked · -4.6 pp

1st + 2nd payment made

37.6%

vs 40.5% recent not-worked · -2.9 pp

Collection rate

42.5%

vs 44.3% recent not-worked · -1.8 pp

Chargeback rate

1.2%

vs 2.6% recent not-worked · -1.4 pp

Headline cards compare the Outreach cohort against Recent, not-worked customers — the tenure-matched control (both started after outreach began). "pp" = percentage points. Lower is better for chargebacks.

How to read this. Outreach only started recently and only on new finance sales, so a naïve comparison against all old customers would be unfair. We use three cohorts per market:

Outreach — matched to an outreach pipeline contact (the collectors actually worked them).
Pre-outreach baseline — same market, but their series started before outreach began, so their first two payments never got the treatment. This is the honest "before" benchmark.
Recent, not worked — new sales that started after outreach began but slipped past the pipeline. Smallest group, but the cleanest apples-to-apples concurrent control.

Payment rates are age-gated: a customer only counts toward "1st payment made" once their 1st invoice is actually due, so young outreach customers aren't penalised for invoices that haven't come around yet.

1 · Fairest read — Outreach vs Recent sales that slipped past outreach

Both cohorts started after outreach began, so tenure is matched · the only difference is whether they were worked

Cohort	Customers	1st pay %	Δ	1st+2nd %	Δ	Collection	On track	1-2 miss	3+/never
Outreach (treated)	769	51.5% 274/532	▼ -4.6 pp	37.6% 117/311	▼ -2.9 pp	42.5%	262	187	63
Recent, not worked	4,089	56.1% 1864/3323	40.5% 1061/2618	44.3%	1682	1025	541

Δ = outreach minus recent-not-worked, in percentage points. Green = outreach ahead. Both groups are recent, so tenure is matched. Outreach 2nd-payment sample n=311, control n=2618.

2 · Before vs After — Outreach vs the older pre-outreach baseline

Same markets, customers who started before outreach began · NOT tenure-matched — read with care

Cohort	Customers	1st pay %	Δ	1st+2nd %	Δ	Collection	On track	1-2 miss	3+/never
Outreach (treated)	769	51.5% 274/532	▼ -3.1 pp	37.6% 117/311	▼ -4.1 pp	42.5%	262	187	63
Pre-outreach baseline	20,118	54.6% 10929/20017	41.8% 7990/19133	44.7%	7991	2772	8954

Δ = outreach minus baseline. The baseline is far more tenured (avg customer is months further into their plan), so a lower outreach number here mostly reflects recency, not worse performance — which is exactly why Section 1 is the primary read.

3 · Side-by-side — Outreach vs everyone else (all other finance customers)

The literal "those people vs everyone else" — note the baseline skews older

Cohort	Customers	1st pay %	Δ	1st+2nd %	Δ	Collection	On track	1-2 miss	3+/never
Outreach (treated)	769	51.5% 274/532	▼ -3.3 pp	37.6% 117/311	▼ -4.0 pp	42.5%	262	187	63
Everyone else	24,207	54.8% 12793/23340	41.6% 9051/21751	44.6%	9673	3797	9495

4 · Refunds & Chargebacks by cohort

Since each market's outreach start · attributed to the customer's recurring series

Cohort	Customers	Refunded	Refund %	Refund $	Chargebacks	CB %	CB $
Outreach (treated)	769	5	0.7%	$953.50	9	1.2%	$4,513.33
Pre-outreach baseline	20,118	147	0.7%	$19,771.95	186	0.9%	$55,955.25
Recent, not worked	4,089	47	1.1%	$17,693.12	106	2.6%	$51,033.18

Refund = voluntary (business-initiated, /v2/refunds). Chargeback = customer/bank dispute (/v2/disputes). Account totals this window: 2,557 refunds, 621 chargebacks (some land on non-recurring customers and aren't shown per-cohort).

5 · By market — where outreach is (and isn't) working

Outreach vs recent-not-worked, on the 2nd-payment metric, per Square account

Market	Outreach n	1st %	1st+2nd %	Recent n	Recent 1st+2nd %	Δ 2nd pay
Chicago outreach from 2026-03-27	109	45.6%	30.3% 23/76	638	40.7% 173/425	▼ -10.4 pp
Boston outreach from 2026-04-30	38	64.3%	52.2% 12/23	456	45.6% 103/226	▲ +6.6 pp
New York outreach from 2026-03-27	108	46.3%	24.4% 10/41	615	35.6% 152/427	▼ -11.2 pp
Florida outreach from 2026-04-13	161	53.7%	36.0% 9/25	1009	42.4% 274/646	▼ -6.4 pp
Texas (Houston + Dallas) outreach from 2026-04-15	272	53.5%	42.3% 44/104	975	39.0% 256/656	▲ +3.3 pp
Nashville outreach from 2026-05-04	81	51.9%	45.2% 19/42	396	43.3% 103/238	▲ +2.0 pp

Δ = outreach 2nd-payment % minus recent-not-worked, where both samples are large enough to read. Outreach start dates differ per market. Markets with very few matured 2nd payments show "low n" and shouldn't be over-read.

Is the Outreach Work Helping?