| Today | Proposed | |
|---|---|---|
| First contact | 23.2 hours at best | Within 2 hours, worded by what the bank actually said |
| Who gets contacted | 71.7% — a fifth never even reach the system | 100%, reconciled daily |
| Messages sent | 2, one day apart | A planned sequence to day 30, and a text after every call attempt |
| How long contact lasts | 1 day | 30 days, to the next invoice |
| Phone calls | Unknown — nothing records who was called | 2 a day on days 1–3, one on day 5, every attempt logged against the account |
| If they reply | 1 in 3 gets no answer | Named owner, answered the same working day |
| Staff | 34.6 minutes of talk time a day | Same five people, re-pointed |
| Group | Size | Money | What we would do differently |
|---|---|---|---|
| New agreements first payment fails |
5,127 a year | $1,136,232 | Prevent what we can at the till, message before the payment is taken, then contact within hours rather than a day. This is where the money is. |
| First two months missing payments early on |
849 of 1,599 live | $254,182 | One message, placed in front of the second missed payment. After one miss the next payment succeeds 44% of the time; after two, 23.5%. Nothing sits in that gap today. |
| Long-lapsed four or more failures running |
9,801 | $14,601,622 | Stop charging the dead ones, then a priced settlement offer to the 1,469 who have paid us before. Not a calling list — it is the largest number here and the worst use of an hour. |
| What the bank said | Share | What it actually means |
|---|---|---|
| Over a limit on the account | 55% | A money code, not a technical one. It recovers at the same rate as “insufficient funds”, and when we ask customers to pick a reason themselves, almost all choose “money is a bit tight”. |
| Refused, no reason given | 23% | The issuer told us nothing. A conversation is the only way to find out. |
| Not enough money | 10% | Exactly what it says. |
| Bank has blocked recurring payments on the card | 7% | The only code with a thirty-second customer-side fix — a toggle in their banking app. Nobody is ever told this, because the reason never reaches the people making contact. |
| Card expired, wrong details, or the bank refused the instalment | 5% | Genuinely technical. Needs new card details. |
| Card is from | First instalments | Failed | Share of ALL failures |
|---|---|---|---|
| An early-access app bank | 694 (18.6%) | 81.1% | 31.6% |
| Any other bank | 3,039 (81.4%) | 40.1% | 68.4% |
| Card | First instalments | Failed |
|---|---|---|
| App bank, ordinary card | 380 | 76.1% |
| App bank, prepaid card | 314 | 87.3% |
| High-street bank, ordinary card | 2,984 | 39.7% |
| High-street bank, prepaid card | 55 | 61.8% |
| Among high-street banks only | First instalments | Failed |
|---|---|---|
| Credit card | 786 | 27.2% |
| Debit card | 2,251 | 44.7% |
| Issuing bank | First instalments | Failed |
|---|---|---|
| Sutton Bank — Cash App, Chime | 308 | 87.3% |
| The Bancorp Bank — various app accounts | 112 | 76.8% |
| Stride Bank — Chime | 99 | 74.7% |
| Navy Federal Credit Union | 140 | 55.7% |
| Wells Fargo | 220 | 44.5% |
| Bank of America | 377 | 40.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase — debit | 382 | 36.6% |
| JPMorgan Chase — credit | 124 | 6.5% |
| People | On what | Volume | Why they sit there |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | The back book everything four or more payments down |
9,801 accounts | The existing job, plus the settlement campaign. Largest pile, lowest return per hour — so it gets the people, not the priority. |
| 1 | Missed first payments the first ten days |
~100 a week | The highest-value hour on the book. Needs one person whose whole job is speed, because the value halves within days. |
| 1 | Irregular missers first two months, missing here and there |
~119 a week | Catching the second missed payment before it happens. After one miss the next payment succeeds 44% of the time; after two, 23.5%. |
| When | What happens | By whom |
|---|---|---|
| Day 0, within 2 hours | Text, worded by what the bank actually said, carrying the payment link and the credit | Automated |
| Day 1 | 2 calls, each followed by a one-button text | Person |
| Day 2 | 2 calls + texts | Person |
| Day 3 | 2 calls + texts | Person |
| Day 5 | 1 call + text | Person |
| Day 7 | Three-button message — pay / arrange / not this month | Automated |
| Days 10, 14, 21, 25, 30 | Arrangement offer, check-in, the warning before the next payment, pre-notice, next payment falls due | Automated |
| Line | Per year | The assumption behind it |
|---|---|---|
| First-payment recovery improves by 5 percentage points from 26.4% to 31.4% recovered within 30 days |
$57,000–$118,000 | 5,127 failures a year × 5 points = 256 more agreements rescued. The lower figure values each at the missed payment alone (about $222). The upper values each at $461 — half the $922 whole-agreement difference we can observe, because much of that difference is the customer rather than the rescue: somebody we can recover quickly was always the better payer. Halving it is a judgement, and it is the assumption most worth arguing about. Both ends depend entirely on Phase 0. |
| Second-miss warning message | not quantified | Deliberately left blank. 353 agreements are sitting one payment down right now and the success rate halves at the second. But we have never sent this message, so its effect is unknown, and borrowing a rate from our collectors’ results would measure a human conversation rather than an automated message. Decision 8 is how we find out. |
| Stop charging dead agreements | cost, not revenue | 3,100 failed attempts in 30 days against cards that cannot succeed. Saves processing fees and, more importantly, reduces chargeback exposure — $385,210 was put at already-dead cards in a single quarter. |
| Settlement campaign on lapsed payers | ~$130,000 pool | 1,469 accounts × the measured 19.7% return rate × $448 average. Read this as the size of the pool, not as new money — 19.7% is what the book already achieves with the effort already spent. Whether a priced offer beats that is untested. |
| Cost | No new headcount + 3–4 dev weeks |
The people are already employed — this is a re-pointing, not a hire, and the capacity check in section 6 shows the two new roles fit inside a working day at the team’s own measured contact rate. The only new cash cost is the engineering. The board should note the opposite risk: if the back book is left with three people rather than five, the recovery on the oldest accounts will fall, and that reduction is not modelled here. |
| Measure | Today | What good looks like |
|---|---|---|
| Time from failed payment to first contact | 23.2 hours at best | Under 2 hours for the automated step; a call attempt inside 48 hours |
| Share of failures that enter the process at all | 80% | 100%, reconciled daily with an alarm on the gap |
| Customers who reply and then receive an answer | Not measured, and 16 went unanswered in one week | 100% answered the same working day |
| First payment recovered within 30 days | 26.4% | 31.4% — the basis of the financial case |
| Answering a message within 30 days | 8.3% | Rising — and measured excluding phone reactions, which currently inflate it |
| Second missed payment after a first | 56% go on to miss again | Falling — measured against the held-back control group |
| Call attempts per person per day | 58 at the busiest line; 34.6 minutes of talk time | ~140 on the first-payment role, with the follow-up text sent on every one |
| Calls attributable to a customer | None — the phone system records per agent per day only | Every attempt logged against the account, so a queue can be audited |
| Call attempts that get a follow-up text | None — there is no such step today | 100%, one button, logged against the account |
| Payment-link credit actually applied | 0 of 83,623 payments in 2026 | Every payment made through the link |
scripts/reports/report_proposal.js| Day | Failed openings | Missed | Texted | Replied | Money in since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 2026-09-07 | 11 | $4206.73 | 9 81.8% | 6 66.7% | 2 18.2% |
| Tue, 2026-09-08 | 4 | $891.65 | 3 75.0% | 0 0.0% | 1 25.0% |
| Wed, 2026-09-09 | 7 | $2686.66 | 6 85.7% | 3 50.0% | 1 14.3% |
| Thu, 2026-09-10 | 6 | $1235.83 | 5 83.3% | 5 100.0% | 3 50.0% |
| Fri, 2026-09-11 | 21 | $6035.14 | 18 85.7% | 6 33.3% | 6 28.6% |
| Sat, 2026-09-12 | 7 | $1297.91 | 0 0.0% | — | 1 14.3% |
| Sun, 2026-09-13 | 4 | $699.99 | 4 100.0% | 1 25.0% | 1 25.0% |
| City | Failed openings | Missed | In debt GHL | Texted | Replied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 12 | $2244.65 | 10 83.3% | 9 75.0% | 4 44.4% |
| Boston | 6 | $1049.66 | 5 83.3% | 5 83.3% | 4 80.0% |
| New York | 15 | $3423.72 | 14 93.3% | 14 93.3% | 6 42.9% |
| Florida | 20 | $7217.89 | 13 65.0% | 11 55.0% | 4 36.4% |
| Chicago | 2 | $2229.67 | 1 50.0% | 1 50.0% | 0 0.0% |
| Nashville | 5 | $888.32 | 5 100.0% | 5 100.0% | 3 60.0% |
card_details.errors on the failed opening charge.
One row per code, with what it means on this book rather than what the Square docs call it.| Reason | Failures | Missed | Money in since | Texted | Replied | What it means here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction limit TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 33 55.0% | $8548.05 | 8 24.2% | 27 81.8% | 12 44.4% | The issuer refused it against a limit on the account. On this book it behaves as a MONEY code, not a technical one — it recovers at the same rate as INSUFFICIENT_FUNDS, and of the customers who answered our text and picked an option, almost all picked "money is a bit tight". |
| Generic decline GENERIC_DECLINE | 14 23.3% | $3028.72 | 3 21.4% | 10 71.4% | 5 50.0% | The issuer refused and told us nothing. No script follows from this code on its own — the text is the only way to find out why. |
| Insufficient funds INSUFFICIENT_FUNDS | 6 10.0% | $3137.49 | 2 33.3% | 4 66.7% | 3 75.0% | Not enough money in the account on the day. |
| Cardholder permissions CARDHOLDER_INSUFFICIENT_PERMISSIONS | 4 6.7% | $806.33 | 1 25.0% | 3 75.0% | 0 0.0% | The issuer has fenced this card off from recurring card-not-present charges. ONLY THE CARDHOLDER CAN LIFT IT, usually a toggle in their banking app. This is the one code on the list where "check your bank app" is the correct script — and it is heavily concentrated in the early-access neobanks. |
| Issuer instalment error ISSUER_INSTALLMENT_ERROR | 1 1.7% | $241.66 | 0 0.0% | 0 0.0% | — | The issuer rejected the charge specifically as an INSTALMENT. It is not a balance problem and not a dead card — the bank would not take this card on a payment plan. The card has to be replaced with one that will; asking them to "try again" with the same card does nothing. |
| CVV failure CVV_FAILURE | 1 1.7% | $1150.00 | 1 100.0% | 0 0.0% | — | The security code did not match. |
| Card expired CARD_EXPIRED | 1 1.7% | $141.66 | 0 0.0% | 1 100.0% | 1 100.0% | The stored card is past its expiry date. Needs new card details, nothing else. |
| Brand | Failures | Missed | Money in since |
|---|---|---|---|
| VISA | 40 66.7% | $11067.19 | 9 22.5% |
| MASTERCARD | 16 26.7% | $5136.73 | 4 25.0% |
| DISCOVER | 3 5.0% | $562.49 | 2 66.7% |
| AMERICAN_EXPRESS | 1 1.7% | $287.50 | 0 0.0% |
| Where they stand | People | Owing | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never reached the GHL | 5 11.1% | $852.08 | Nobody can chase them — they are not in the sub-account. Getting them in is the fix. |
| In the GHL, never texted | 2 4.4% | $462.49 | The contact exists and nothing went out. Check whether the feed dropped them or the workflow did. |
| Texted, no reply | 22 48.9% | $4866.06 | Asked once and silent. This is the calling list — a text has already failed on them. |
| Texted, replied, still no money | 16 35.6% | $3492.05 | They ENGAGED and still have not paid. Warmest of the four and the one nobody is working. |
| Days since the charge failed | People | Owing |
|---|---|---|
| 3 days or less | 3 6.7% | $654.16 |
| 4–5 days | 21 46.7% | $4174.72 |
| 6–7 days | 9 20.0% | $2101.66 |
| 8 days or more | 12 26.7% | $2742.14 |
| Square's reason | Still owing | Owing | Share of that reason | Texted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction limit | 25 55.6% | $4973.89 | 25 75.8% | 23 92.0% |
| Generic decline | 11 24.4% | $2564.15 | 11 78.6% | 8 72.7% |
| Insufficient funds | 4 8.9% | $1057.49 | 4 66.7% | 3 75.0% |
| Cardholder permissions | 3 6.7% | $693.83 | 3 75.0% | 3 100.0% |
| Issuer instalment error | 1 2.2% | $241.66 | 1 100.0% | 0 0.0% |
| Card expired | 1 2.2% | $141.66 | 1 100.0% | 1 100.0% |
| City | Still owing | Owing | Share of that city | Texted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 8 17.8% | $1468.82 | 8 66.7% | 6 75.0% |
| Boston | 6 13.3% | $1049.66 | 6 100.0% | 5 83.3% |
| New York | 12 26.7% | $2959.15 | 12 80.0% | 12 100.0% |
| Florida | 15 33.3% | $3297.89 | 15 75.0% | 11 73.3% |
| Chicago | 1 2.2% | $279.67 | 1 50.0% | 1 100.0% |
| Nashville | 3 6.7% | $617.49 | 3 60.0% | 3 100.0% |
scripts/reports/report_first_miss_week.jspcTyOadbzBqZO7v3cbwn) — matched on phone number, then email, then name. Read-only: this page sends
nothing and enrols nobody.| Time from failure to first text | People |
|---|---|
| Same day (under 12h) | 0 0.0% |
| 12–24h | 6 13.3% |
| 1–2 days | 21 46.7% |
| 2–4 days | 18 40.0% |
| 4 days+ | 0 0.0% |
| Reply | People |
|---|---|
| 1 — Card issue | 2 9.5% |
| 2 — Money is a bit tight | 7 33.3% |
| 3 — Something else | 2 9.5% |
| Wrote something instead of picking | 10 47.6% |
| Day | Failed openings | Never reached GHL | In GHL, not texted | Missed, uncontacted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 2026-09-07 | 11 | 2 18.2% | 0 | $2247.91 |
| Tue, 2026-09-08 | 4 | 0 | 1 25.0% | $241.66 |
| Wed, 2026-09-09 | 7 | 0 | 1 14.3% | $1150.00 |
| Thu, 2026-09-10 | 6 | 1 16.7% | 0 | $320.00 |
| Fri, 2026-09-11 | 21 | 3 14.3% | 0 | $2450.00 |
| Sat, 2026-09-12 | 7 | 6 85.7% | 1 14.3% | $1297.91 |
| Sun, 2026-09-13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | $0.00 |
| City | Failed openings | Never reached GHL | Missed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 12 | 2 16.7% | $316.67 |
| Boston | 6 | 1 16.7% | $125.00 |
| New York | 15 | 1 6.7% | $297.91 |
| Florida | 20 | 7 35.0% | $3405.41 |
| Chicago | 2 | 1 50.0% | $1950.00 |
| Nashville | 5 | 0 | $0.00 |
| Contact created | People |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | 1 |
| 2026-06-15 | 2 |
scripts/reports/report_first_miss_week.js| Day | Failed openings | Self‑fixed <24h | Needed chasing | In our file | In the GHL | Texted | Lost | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 2026-08-20 | 21 | — | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | — | landed |
| Fri, 2026-08-21 | 29 | 3 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 26 | — | landed |
| Sat, 2026-08-22 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | — | landed |
| Sun, 2026-08-23 | 4 | — | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | — | landed |
| Mon, 2026-08-24 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | — | landed |
| Tue, 2026-08-25 | 22 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 19 | — | landed |
| Wed, 2026-08-26 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | — | landed |
| Thu, 2026-08-27 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | — | landed |
| Fri, 2026-08-28 | 45 | 5 | 40 | 38 | 40 | 38 | — | landed |
| Sat, 2026-08-29 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | no failures |
| Sun, 2026-08-30 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | no failures |
| Mon, 2026-08-31 | 95 | 7 | 88 | 85 | 88 | 87 | — | landed |
| Tue, 2026-09-01 | 13 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | — | landed |
| Wed, 2026-09-02 | 4 | — | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | — | landed |
| Thu, 2026-09-03 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | landed |
| Fri, 2026-09-04 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 15 $2988.56 | NOTHING LANDED |
| Sat, 2026-09-05 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | landed |
| Sun, 2026-09-06 | 4 | — | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | — | landed |
| Mon, 2026-09-07 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | — | landed |
| Tue, 2026-09-08 | 4 | — | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | — | landed |
| Wed, 2026-09-09 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | — | landed |
| Thu, 2026-09-10 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | — | landed |
| Fri, 2026-09-11 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | — | landed |
| Sat, 2026-09-12 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 $852.08 | part of it landed |
| Sun, 2026-09-13 | 4 | — | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | — | landed |
| Mon, 2026-09-14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | — | landed |
| Tue, 2026-09-15 | 39 | 9 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 28 | — | landed |
| Wed, 2026-09-16 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 1 $295.83 | part of it landed |
| Day | Needed chasing | Our file that day | Of them, in our file | Never created in GHL | Missed | Never paid since |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 2026-09-04 | 15 | 105 in the file | 15 | 15 | $2988.56 | 14 |
| City | Needed chasing | Never reached the GHL | Texted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 114 | 4 3.5% | 105 92.1% |
| Boston | 43 | 2 4.7% | 41 95.3% |
| New York | 56 | 2 3.6% | 51 91.1% |
| Florida | 91 | 10 11.0% | 79 86.8% |
| Chicago | 36 | 2 5.6% | 32 88.9% |
| Nashville | 31 | 1 3.2% | 30 96.8% |
Recurring*
locations, taken from the whole attempt history, that did not complete. Same definition as the
This week tab, so the two pages cannot disagree.pcTyOadbzBqZO7v3cbwn. Phone is the only
field that has ever produced a match in this sub-account; the other two are probed so an “absent”
verdict is never really a formatting miss.https://reports.iconicbyai.com/chase-coverage/dropped.csv
scripts/reports/report_chase_coverage.js.scripts/reports/report_chase_coverage.js| GHL owner | People | Owed |
|---|---|---|
| Maria R | 5 | $1163.33 |
| Ronnie K Studio 1 | 3 | $591.66 |
| Nick S | 2 | $558.33 |
| Princess Roni | 3 | $451.66 |
| Emily Lewis | 2 | $439.57 |
| Charles C | 1 | $287.50 |
| Name | Owner | Owing | Days | Square reason | Replies | Last heard from them | Who spoke last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeanne Harmon | Emily Lewis | $297.91 | 5 | GENERIC_DECLINE | 1 | 2026-09-14 | we did |
| Truly Blessed | Ronnie K Studio 1 | $295.83 | 9 | INSUFFICIENT_FUNDS | 2 | 2026-09-08 | THEY did |
| Jordan Smith | Princess Roni | $295.83 | 9 | TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 2 | 2026-09-10 | we did |
| Berthsaida Jeangilles | Nick S | $295.83 | 5 | TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 1 | 2026-09-14 | we did |
| Kylian Loor | Maria R | $287.50 | 9 | GENERIC_DECLINE | 1 | 2026-09-08 | we did |
| Alenid Nahir Rivera | Charles C | $287.50 | 7 | TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 1 | 2026-09-10 | we did |
| Mirka Peñaloza | Nick S | $262.50 | 7 | TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 1 | 2026-09-10 | we did |
| Allyrae Hanus | Maria R | $250.00 | 9 | TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 2 | 2026-09-08 | we did |
| Steven Moreno Estevez | Maria R | $245.00 | 6 | TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 2 | 2026-09-14 | THEY did |
| Johnyah Simone Venette | Maria R | $235.00 | 6 | INSUFFICIENT_FUNDS | 1 | 2026-09-11 | we did |
| Nicky Mangar | Ronnie K Studio 1 | $220.83 | 9 | TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 1 | 2026-09-08 | we did |
| Valyntena Lawrence | Maria R | $145.83 | 5 | TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 3 | 2026-09-16 | THEY did |
| Gloria Arnold | Emily Lewis | $141.66 | 7 | CARD_EXPIRED | 9 | 2026-09-11 | we did |
| Hergas Fouedjou | Princess Roni | $85.00 | 6 | GENERIC_DECLINE | 3 | 2026-09-14 | we did |
| Stephanie Pacifique | Ronnie K Studio 1 | $75.00 | 9 | TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 10 | 2026-09-09 | THEY did |
| Henry Faviors | Princess Roni | $70.83 | 5 | TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 2 | 2026-09-14 | we did |
scripts/reports/report_first_miss_chats.js
from the debt sub-account pcTyOadbzBqZO7v3cbwn. Re-run it for the current position — money still arrives on
these accounts because a person makes it happen, and names drop off this list without anything here changing.scripts/reports/report_first_miss_chats.js| Population | Accounts | Money on the floor | Scale | The play in one line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · New contracts the opening instalment | 5,127 a year | $1,136,232 | 46.9% of 10,943 opened | Prevent it, then own the first ten days. |
| 2 · Early life opened 10–60 days ago | 849 of 1,599 live | $254,182 | 53.1% have missed at least once | Finish what the opening started. Two very different halves. |
| 3 · Zombie 4+ consecutive failed charges | 9,801 | $14,601,622 | 2,867 still being charged | Triage, not chase. Stop the bleed first. |
| What we found | What it breaks | What the plan does about it |
|---|---|---|
| Day 0 does not exist. The fastest text all week left 23.2 hours after the charge failed; median 24.4h; nothing inside 12h ever. /first-miss-week, 7–13 Sep | The ladder's day-0 +2h step — the one sitting on 48% of everything a miss ever returns — is physically impossible today. The feed into the debt sub-account is a daily Google-Sheet drop. | Build item 1. Event-driven feed. Nothing else in this plan reaches its stated value until this is done. |
| The decline reason never reaches GHL at all. No reason field exists on that sub-account. reference_us_debt_collection_ghl | Every outbound text is identical whatever the issuer said — so the four-way routing the ladder is built on cannot happen, and the two codes with a real 30-second customer-side fix are never named. | Build item 2. Reason + bucket as custom fields, and route on them. |
| 20% never arrive. 12 of the 60 failures last week had no contact in the sub-account at all — probed on digits, last-ten, email and surname. /first-miss-week | A fifth of the queue is invisible to every workflow, every report and every collector. They are not being worked badly; they are not being worked. | Build item 3. Reconcile the feed daily and alarm on the gap. |
| Replying is not the finish line. 16 of the 45 still-unpaid answered our text and no money followed. /first-miss-week-chats | The ladder measures contact rate, and contact rate was the right first metric — but nothing owns what happens after someone answers. Two of those 16 were plainly waiting on us. | Build item 4. A "replied, unpaid" queue with a named owner and a same-working-day SLA. |
| An iMessage tapback reads as a reply. Loved "…" arrives as an ordinary inbound SMS. /first-miss-week-chats | Reply rate — the number the whole ladder is judged on — is inflated by thumbs-ups on invoice links. | Build item 5. Filter them. Already done on the chats page; the trend reports still count them. |
| Lever | Size | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Card quality at the point of sale | ~33 /wk | Early-access neobank cards are 19.0% of first instalments but 32.3% of the misses, failing 81.4% against 39.8% for a traditional card — and they recover worse too. Sutton Bank (Cash App/Chime) 87.1% on 309. Against JPMorgan Chase 6.5%. /first-miss-handoff, 16 Sep 2026 | Nothing in place. The lever is at the till — a second card, or a different funding method, taken at signing. |
| No card on file at all | 6.5% | 714 of 10,973 scheduled invoices hold no card. Square cannot attempt them, so they produce no decline code, land in no bucket and appear on no list — and recover 6.3% next cycle against 28.2%. 86 of the worst 100 were paying normally and their card came off. /first-miss-nocard, 16 Sep 2026 | List built, never worked. Never tell them their card was declined — nothing was attempted. |
| The charge date | ~11pp | The 31st is our most-chosen charge day and the second worst-performing — 38.9% against 49.5% on the 1st. Moving a date is the cheapest fix we own and needs no conversation. reference_crm_paydays | Available now. Can be offered at signing and at day 10. |
| The day-before message | ~30 /day | Nobody sends anything before a first payment — not us, not Square. 600 of 600 recurring invoices are set to EMAIL, exactly 2 in the business are SMS, and 577 of 600 carry no reminder at all. Checked across 439,694 note lines: no proactive pre-payment message exists. /first-miss-handoff, 16 Sep 2026 | Drafted, not sent. Hold 10% back as a control — the effect is UNKNOWN and could be negative. |
| Where they stand | Accounts | Banked so far | What it actually is |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clean — never missed | 750 46.9% | $246,943 | Leave alone. 46.9% of the cohort. |
| Missed the opening, recovered | 204 12.8% | $56,997 | Working as intended. This is what the ladder is for. |
| Paid the opening, missed later | 110 6.9% | $27,978 | Retention. They have proved they can pay. Smallest group, warmest. |
| Missed the opening, never paid a cent | 503 31.5% | $0 | A sale that never began. Biggest group after clean, and the whole problem. |
| Group | Accounts | Money | What it is, and what to do |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paid before going quiet 1,469 of them still being charged |
5,114 52.2% | $3,064,550 already banked |
A real customer who stopped. Average $599 over 3.0 payments — though 1,906 of them made exactly one payment and then died, which is a first-cycle failure wearing a zombie's clothes. This is the settlement campaign. They have a payment history, a relationship and a reason to answer. |
| Never paid a cent | 4,687 47.8% | $6,691,378 never collected |
Never a customer. $6,691,378 that has only ever existed as an attempted charge. Chasing these as debt is chasing a sale that never happened. Worth a root-cause afternoon, not a collector's month — 85.6% are soft declines, so something is going wrong at signing, not at the bank. |
| # | Item | Priority | Why it is there |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Event-driven feed into the debt sub-account | BLOCKING | Replaces the daily Google-Sheet drop. Until this lands the first text cannot leave inside 23 hours, and day 1 is 48% of everything a miss ever returns. Every value in this plan is capped by it. |
| 2 | Decline reason + bucket as GHL custom fields | BLOCKING | No reason field exists on that sub-account today. Without it every message is generic and the four-way routing cannot happen — including the one code a customer can fix in 30 seconds in their banking app. |
| 3 | Daily feed reconciliation + gap alarm | BLOCKING | 12 of 60 failures last week never reached the sub-account at all. A fifth of the queue is invisible to every workflow and every report. |
| 4 | Replied-but-unpaid queue, named owner, same-day SLA | HIGH | 16 of 45 still-unpaid had already answered. A reply that goes unread spends the goodwill and banks nothing — and a customer's agreement to pay $885 once sat unread until it was found by accident. |
| 5 | Tapback filter in the trend reports | HIGH | Reply rate is the metric the ladder is judged on. Loved "…" arrives as an ordinary inbound SMS. Fixed on /first-miss-week-chats; /debt-trend still counts them, and its cache holds no bodies so it cannot be corrected retrospectively. |
| 6 | Nightly sweep to stop charging dead series | HIGH | 2,867 accounts, 3,100 failed charges in 30 days, $611,841 a cycle. The Invoices API cannot end a series, so it must be a sweep. Pays for itself in avoided chargebacks. |
| 7 | Apply the /pay portal bonus credit | HIGH | The portal promises "+15% credited to your balance" and nothing applies it — no CRM write, no ledger write, no Square credit. Latent rather than live (zero of 83,623 recurring payments in 2026 carry the note), but it must be fixed before any traffic is sent there. |
| 8 | Repoint notifyGHL off the empty sub-account | HIGH | It reads ghl_config.json, which points at a near-empty "AI Debt Collection" location. Anything it sends goes nowhere anyone is watching. |
| 9 | Day −5 / −1 pre-notices, with a 10% control | MEDIUM | Drafted, never sent. Hold 10% back and send them nothing — the effect is UNKNOWN and could be negative; telling someone a charge is coming also lets them move the money out. |
| 10 | Sale-rescue list for the never-started | MEDIUM | 503 accounts in the 10–60 day window have never paid a cent. Studio voice, not collector voice. |
| 11 | Card quality prompt at the point of sale | MEDIUM | Neobank cards fail 81.4% against 39.8%. The lever is at the till and no phone call can replace it. |
| 12 | Settlement campaign, capped at 25%, opening day 40 | MEDIUM | 1,469 live zombies with a payment history. Under 25% returns $0.74/$1; deeper collapses to $0.14. |
| Line | Range a year | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|
| Population 1 — lift 30-day recovery on failed openings by 5pp from 26.4% to 31.4% |
$57k – $236k | 5,127 failed openings a year × 5pp = 256 more agreements recovered. The low end values each at the opening instalment alone (~$222). The high end values each at $461 — HALF the $922 observed gap, because most of that gap is selection: an account we can recover quickly belongs to a better payer who would have paid more anyway. Halving it is a judgement, not a measurement. Both ends depend entirely on build item 1. |
| Population 2 — the cliff message in front of the second miss | not modelled | Deliberately not given a number. 353 accounts sit at one miss today and the hazard drops 44.0% → 23.5% at the second, but we have never run this message, so its conversion is UNKNOWN. Borrowing a rate from the collector data would measure a human conversation, not an automated text. It needs a holdout arm to produce a real figure. |
| Population 3 — stop charging dead series | cost, not revenue | 3,100 failed charges in 30 days on cards that cannot pass. Saves processing and, more importantly, chargeback exposure — $385,210 was aimed at already-dead cards in a single quarter. |
| Population 3 — settlement on the live ever-paid | ~$130k at the base rate | 1,469 accounts × the measured 19.7% deep-run return rate × $448 average. Read this as the size of the pool, not as incremental revenue — 19.7% is what the book already achieves with the effort it already spends. The incremental question is whether a priced settlement beats that, and nobody has tested it. |
scripts/reports/report_money_plan.js| Who owns them | New contracts | Early life 10–60 days | Zombie — 4+ misses | People | Missed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Lewis | 5 $1180.81 | 13 $2538.32 | 12 $2721.40 | 30 | $6440.53 |
| Nobody owns them | 10 $2996.98 | 10 $1756.47 | 10 $1962.91 | 30 | $6716.36 |
| Owned by someone else | 10 $2089.16 | 10 $2504.07 | 10 $3607.00 | 30 | $8200.23 |
| TOTAL | 25 $6266.95 | 33 $6798.86 | 32 $8291.31 | 90 | $21357.12 |
| Population | On the list | What it is | How to play it |
|---|---|---|---|
| New contracts | 25 | The opening instalment failed and the agreement is under 10 days old. | Worth the most per dial on the whole book — an opening caught inside ten days is worth $922 more per agreement by day 365. Nothing is lost yet and the relationship has not soured. |
| Early life 10–60 days | 33 | Opened 10 to 60 days ago and 1 to 3 misses deep. | The cliff sits here. After one miss the next charge is paid 44.0% of the time; after two, 23.5%. A call placed before the second miss is worth roughly double one placed after it. |
| Zombie — 4+ misses | 32 | Four or more consecutive failed charges, any age. | The hardest of the three and included here because Neil asked for a cross-section. 19.7% of accounts that go this deep do eventually pay again, worth $448 each — but 47.8% never paid a cent, so expect a low hit rate and judge this cell on what you learn, not on what it collects. |
| # | Name & phone | City | Missed | Ago | Run | What the bank said | GHL owner | Why they are here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New contracts — Emily Lewis (5 of 10 — see the shortfall note) | ||||||||
| 1 | Elisa Hanson-Linton +18324740746 | Texas | $297.50 | 1d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 2 | Brian Campbell +19365294245 | Texas | $222.91 | 1d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 3 | Jeanne Harmon +15635064761 | Nashville | $297.91 | 5d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Emily Lewis | missed this week · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-09-11 and still unpaid |
| 4 | Zaiden Kai +16822275403 | Texas | $220.83 | 4d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Emily Lewis | missed this week · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-09-12 and still unpaid |
| 5 | Gloria Arnold +16785587108 | Boston | $141.66 | 7d | 1 | Card expired new card details | Emily Lewis | missed this week · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-09-09 and still unpaid |
| Early life 10–60 days — Emily Lewis (13) | ||||||||
| 6 | Regina Lasater +19189821791 | Texas | $104.17 $208.34 total | 1d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($104) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 7 | Aria Mark +12812209705 | Texas | $100.00 $200.00 total | 2d | 1 | Bank has blocked recurring a 30-second fix in their banking app | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($100) |
| 8 | Bri Wadley +12146952978 | Texas | $300.00 $600.00 total | 6d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed this week · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($300) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-11 and still unpaid |
| 9 | Lakesha Malonga +17732314046 | Chicago | $295.83 $591.66 total | 1d | 2 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 2 misses in a row · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 10 | Kinsleigh Allen +14698797106 | Texas | $287.50 $575.00 total | 1d | 2 | Bank has blocked recurring a 30-second fix in their banking app | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 2 misses in a row · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 11 | Branden Butler +14695349242 | Texas | $287.50 $575.00 total | 1d | 2 | No money on the day affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 2 misses in a row · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 12 | Wesley Olcima +19546731338 | Florida | $285.00 $570.00 total | 1d | 2 | Card expired new card details | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 2 misses in a row · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 13 | Margaritte Bush +17732401974 | Chicago | $229.16 $458.32 total | 1d | 2 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 2 misses in a row · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 14 | Nia Barrett +19045775915 | Florida | $183.33 $366.66 total | 1d | 2 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 2 misses in a row · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 15 | Rick Thomas Cheek +19043609370 | Florida | $150.00 $300.00 total | 3d | 2 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 2 misses in a row · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-08-13 and still unpaid |
| 16 BACKFILL | Saylee Opela +19403378327 | Texas | $145.83 $291.66 total | 0d | 2 | No money on the day affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 2 misses in a row · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-08-16 and still unpaid |
| 17 BACKFILL | Alivia Raye Skipper +13124973794 | Chicago | $85.00 $170.00 total | 2d | 2 | No money on the day affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 2 misses in a row · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-08-14 and still unpaid |
| 18 BACKFILL | Terrance Lusk +18327273263 | Texas | $85.00 $170.00 total | 1d | 2 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 2 misses in a row · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| Zombie — 4+ misses — Emily Lewis (12) | ||||||||
| 19 | Annika Saenz +19562055195 | Texas | $296.00 $1776.00 total | 1d | 5 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 5 misses in a row · has paid us 1× before ($296) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 20 | David Marcell +12253241842 | Texas | $295.33 $2362.64 total | 1d | 4 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 4 misses in a row · has paid us 3× before ($741) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 21 | Patrick Garcia +19723361411 | Texas | $265.00 $3710.00 total | 0d | 13 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 13 misses in a row · has paid us 1× before ($265) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-16 and still unpaid |
| 22 | Jordan Browning +19194922881 | Texas | $262.50 $1050.00 total | 1d | 4 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 4 misses in a row · has paid us 1× before ($263) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 23 | Evan Mukerjee +19549935739 | Florida | $257.50 $3605.00 total | 2d | 5 | Bank has blocked recurring a 30-second fix in their banking app | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 5 misses in a row · has paid us 8× before ($2,060) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-14 and still unpaid |
| 24 | Megan Ackerman +19733893985 | New York | $247.91 $991.64 total | 0d | 4 | Bank has blocked recurring a 30-second fix in their banking app | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 4 misses in a row · has paid us 2× before ($496) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-16 and still unpaid |
| 25 | Twyla Propps +14302930279 | Texas | $241.67 $966.68 total | 1d | 4 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 4 misses in a row · has paid us 2× before ($483) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 26 | Preston Brockington +14322546453 | Texas | $225.00 $1100.00 total | 3d | 4 | No money on the day affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 4 misses in a row · has paid us 1× before ($100) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-13 and still unpaid |
| 27 | Rakeisha Elliott +16156744454 | Nashville | $183.33 $733.32 total | 1d | 4 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 4 misses in a row · has paid us 1× before ($183) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 28 | Manoushka Guillaume +16469720891 | Florida | $150.00 $3275.00 total | 1d | 6 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 6 misses in a row · has paid us 3× before ($450) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-06 and still unpaid |
| 29 BACKFILL | Breanna Williams +19185084269 | Florida | $150.00 $2737.47 total | 3d | 4 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 4 misses in a row · has paid us 1× before ($150) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-13 and still unpaid |
| 30 BACKFILL | Nidia Zuluaga +14077565915 | New York | $147.16 $662.31 total | 0d | 4 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Emily Lewis | missed in the last 3 days · 4 misses in a row · has paid us 8× before ($1,767) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-16 and still unpaid |
| New contracts — Nobody owns them (10) | ||||||||
| 31 | Bradley Baliey +12704848256 | Nashville | $295.83 | 0d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | not in GHL | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · NOT in the debt GHL — a call is the only way to reach them · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 32 | Daniela Perez +18572988548 | Boston | $350.00 | 1d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 33 | Promise Curtis +13465379253 | Texas | $296.00 | 1d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 34 | Sawyer Goodwin +16038001921 | Boston | $296.00 | 1d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 35 | Darlin Lopez +12145795189 | Texas | $295.83 | 0d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 36 | Casper Marrero +17086005304 | Chicago | $295.83 | 0d | 1 | Card number dead new card details | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 37 | Ta’Miiya Mays +16154141684 | Nashville | $295.83 | 0d | 1 | No money on the day affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 38 | Anthony Hernandez +14043546326 | Chicago | $291.67 | 1d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 39 | Samara Segovia +14698830896 | Texas | $291.66 | 3d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started · handed to the chase list 2026-09-13 and still unpaid |
| 40 | Makaila Rush +13525124972 | Florida | $288.33 | 0d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| Early life 10–60 days — Nobody owns them (10) | ||||||||
| 41 | Sebastian Vargas +12019654471 | New York | $295.92 | 0d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($296) |
| 42 | Lonia lilani Batista +17186629409 | New York | $295.00 | 1d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($295) |
| 43 | Kaitlyn Reed +19312481954 | Nashville | $222.91 | 0d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($223) |
| 44 | Dereck Hernandez +19364994104 | Texas | $220.00 | 1d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($220) |
| 45 | Jose Rodriguez +14078440358 | Florida | $179.16 $358.32 total | 2d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($179) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-14 and still unpaid |
| 46 | Fabian Das Escorcia +14078005434 | Florida | $136.66 | 2d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($137) |
| 47 | Michele Renay Strain +19728053518 | Texas | $111.00 | 1d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($111) |
| 48 | Collin Branch +19727290461 | Texas | $104.16 | 0d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($104) |
| 49 | Mekayleana Zeilman +16155614435 | Nashville | $100.00 | 3d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($100) · handed to the chase list 2026-09-13 and still unpaid |
| 50 | Cameron Ford +17087692781 | Chicago | $91.66 $183.32 total | 1d | 1 | Bank has blocked recurring a 30-second fix in their banking app | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($92) |
| Zombie — 4+ misses — Nobody owns them (10) | ||||||||
| 51 | Qecia Nkay +18155820461 | Chicago | $300.00 $1800.00 total | 1d | 4 | Bank has blocked recurring a 30-second fix in their banking app | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · 4 misses in a row · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($300) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 52 | Kyndalyn Minatrea +19369334846 | Texas | $262.50 $1837.50 total | 1d | 5 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · 5 misses in a row · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($263) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 53 | Avery Digges +14344201127 | New York | $255.00 $4080.00 total | 1d | 5 | Card number dead new card details | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · 5 misses in a row · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 5× before ($1,275) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 54 | Charlene Howard +13176089052 | Chicago | $250.00 $2250.00 total | 1d | 7 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · 7 misses in a row · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 5× before ($1,250) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 55 | Tiffany Dodson +13478795265 | New York | $183.33 $1924.94 total | 0d | 12 | Bank has blocked recurring a 30-second fix in their banking app | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · 12 misses in a row · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 1× before ($92) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-16 and still unpaid |
| 56 | Diana Taylor +17577757305 | Texas | $164.58 $1316.64 total | 1d | 4 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · 4 misses in a row · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 5× before ($823) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 57 | Karry-Ann Morris +12817454010 | New York | $162.50 $2437.50 total | 0d | 15 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · 15 misses in a row · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 2× before ($325) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-16 and still unpaid |
| 58 | Brooke Georges +13477771334 | New York | $150.00 $1395.82 total | 1d | 6 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · 6 misses in a row · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 2× before ($398) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 59 | Christina Morrison +13179973947 | Nashville | $125.00 $1375.00 total | 1d | 4 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · 4 misses in a row · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 5× before ($625) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 60 | Gerald Holder-Maldonado +13128062465 | Chicago | $110.00 $1210.00 total | 1d | 7 | Money / limit affordability and timing | NOBODY | missed in the last 3 days · 7 misses in a row · in the GHL but nobody owns them · has paid us 3× before ($440) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| New contracts — Owned by someone else (10) | ||||||||
| 61 | Loretta Herrera +15129965143 | Texas | $296.00 | 1d | 1 | Bank has blocked recurring a 30-second fix in their banking app | Ronnie K Studio 1 | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 62 | Giselle Munoz +15167212237 | New York | $255.00 | 1d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Nick S | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 63 | Janet Nabors +13522639703 | Texas | $250.00 | 1d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Charles C | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 64 | Ayana Avitia +12622875314 | Chicago | $229.16 | 1d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Charles C | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 65 | Pedro Martinez +18633899287 | Florida | $222.01 | 2d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Charles C | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 66 | Alondra Roman +19393251362 | Texas | $220.83 | 2d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Maria R | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 67 | Becky Salas +18725882632 | Chicago | $200.00 | 1d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Maria R | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 68 | Krissie Nelson +16824442744 | Texas | $179.16 | 1d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Ronnie K Studio 1 | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 69 | Nicki Gonzalez +19404429770 | Texas | $125.00 | 2d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Alejandro S | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| 70 | Brooklynn Joe +17133493991 | Texas | $112.00 | 0d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Princess Roni | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has never paid a cent — a sale that never started |
| Early life 10–60 days — Owned by someone else (10) | ||||||||
| 71 | Aaron Arrington Fields +13465628584 | Texas | $296.00 $592.00 total | 2d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Maria R | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($296) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-14 and still unpaid |
| 72 | Alondra Fernandez +13464792019 | Texas | $296.00 | 1d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Ronnie K Studio 1 | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($296) |
| 73 | Joshua Bearden Jr +19807487378 | Nashville | $295.83 | 1d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Maria R | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($296) |
| 74 | Zaylee Trevino +19714939353 | Texas | $287.50 $862.50 total | 1d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Maria R | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($288) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 75 | Joshua Cross +17814081775 | Florida | $287.50 | 1d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Princess Roni | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($288) |
| 76 | Liz Labidou +15614652841 | Florida | $255.00 | 2d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Maria R | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($255) |
| 77 | Trina Scott +12144318236 | Texas | $229.16 | 1d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Maria R | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($229) |
| 78 | Trong Tran +18326084859 | Texas | $220.00 $440.00 total | 3d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Princess Roni | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($220) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-13 and still unpaid |
| 79 | Tinna Broughton +16158860263 | Nashville | $174.58 | 1d | 1 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Maria R | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($175) |
| 80 | Yatziri Najera +12242682347 | Chicago | $162.50 | 1d | 1 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Princess Roni | missed in the last 3 days · sitting at exactly one miss · has paid us 1× before ($163) |
| Zombie — 4+ misses — Owned by someone else (10) | ||||||||
| 81 | Kin-ling Leung +12672515122 | Texas | $320.00 $4160.00 total | 1d | 7 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Kimberly graham | missed in the last 3 days · 7 misses in a row · has paid us 5× before ($1,600) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 82 | Joshua Brown +12109960517 | Texas | $320.00 $4800.00 total | 3d | 14 | No money on the day affordability and timing | Caet S | missed in the last 3 days · 14 misses in a row · has paid us 1× before ($320) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-13 and still unpaid |
| 83 | Anesia Calhoun +12149292070 | Texas | $357.50 $5005.00 total | 1d | 13 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Nick S | missed in the last 3 days · 13 misses in a row · has paid us 1× before ($358) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 84 | Veronica Cagle +19726702619 | Texas | $575.00 $5750.00 total | 1d | 10 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Nick S | missed in the last 3 days · 10 misses in a row · has paid us 3× before ($1,725) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 85 | Trista Heil +19455429648 | Texas | $309.50 $4023.50 total | 0d | 12 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Caet S | missed in the last 3 days · 12 misses in a row · has paid us 1× before ($310) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-16 and still unpaid |
| 86 | Phyllis Thompson +12145421483 | Texas | $355.00 $3195.00 total | 1d | 7 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Nick S | missed in the last 3 days · 7 misses in a row · has paid us 2× before ($710) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 87 | Le Pham +18176838060 | Texas | $355.00 $3905.00 total | 1d | 5 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Charles C | missed in the last 3 days · 5 misses in a row · has paid us 3× before ($1,065) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 88 | Trinadi McGhee +13307165267 | Texas | $300.00 $2400.00 total | 1d | 7 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Caet S | missed in the last 3 days · 7 misses in a row · has paid us 4× before ($1,200) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 89 | Austin Gutierrez +14699745008 | Texas | $355.00 $3550.00 total | 1d | 10 | Issuer said no, no reason find out why | Charles C | missed in the last 3 days · 10 misses in a row · has paid us 1× before ($355) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-15 and still unpaid |
| 90 | Gerron McNear +13146889956 | Texas | $360.00 $2520.00 total | 3d | 5 | Money / limit affordability and timing | Maria R | missed in the last 3 days · 5 misses in a row · has paid us 1× before ($360) · handed to the chase list 2026-08-13 and still unpaid |
| What the bank said | People | Missed | Ask for | How to play it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Money / limit TRANSACTION_LIMIT | 40 44.4% | $9138.03 | affordability and timing | The issuer refused it against a limit. Treat it as a money conversation, not a technical one — it recovers at the same rate as INSUFFICIENT_FUNDS, and when customers pick a reason themselves almost all pick "money is a bit tight". Do NOT open with "your bank made a mistake". Offer to move the charge date or split it. |
| Issuer said no, no reason GENERIC_DECLINE | 32 35.6% | $8118.54 | find out why | The issuer refused and told us nothing, so the call is the only way to find out why. Open by asking rather than telling; do not guess a cause on their behalf. |
| Bank has blocked recurring CARDHOLDER_INSUFFICIENT_PERMISSIONS | 8 8.9% | $1763.90 | a 30-second fix in their banking app | The one call on this list with a genuine 30-second fix. The issuer has fenced this card off from recurring card-not-present charges and only the cardholder can lift it — usually a toggle in their banking app. The ONLY case where "check your bank app" is right, and heavily concentrated in the neobanks (Cash App, Chime, SoFi). |
| No money on the day INSUFFICIENT_FUNDS | 6 6.7% | $1359.16 | affordability and timing | Not enough in the account on the day. The date is the cheapest fix we own — the 31st is our most-chosen charge day and the second worst-performing (38.9% against 49.5% on the 1st). |
| Card expired CARD_EXPIRED | 2 2.2% | $426.66 | new card details | The stored card is past its expiry date. Take new details on the call. |
| Card number dead PAN_FAILURE | 2 2.2% | $550.83 | new card details | The card number itself is wrong or dead. New details. |
scripts/reports/report_call_list.js--from / --to for any other period.card_details.errors on the
failed payment. Where Square recorded no reason the row shows "no reason given" rather than being assigned one.pcTyOadbzBqZO7v3cbwn — the live US Debt Collection sub-account. Not the location in
ghl_config.json, which is a near-empty account that 403s with this token.Reports/finance_cohort/square_attempts.jsonl + square_attempts_pre2025.jsonl — the charge
attempts, refreshed by scripts/reports/pull_square_declines_history.js./v2/customers/{id} — name, phone, email, reference id./contacts/, /conversations/search, /conversations/{id}/messages — all GET.scripts/reports/report_first_miss_week.js at 2026-09-17T11:26:24.183Z.
Reports/finance_cohort/square_attempts.jsonl plus the 2023-06 backfill, deduped by payment id,
restricted to the six Recurring* locations, grouped by Square customer. Deposits, studio sales and office
takings are excluded because they are not instalments. Measured 17 Sep 2026 against data complete to
16 Sep 2026.scripts/reports/report_money_plan.js at 2026-09-17T22:00:25.537Z.assignedTo on the contact in the debt sub-account pcTyOadbzBqZO7v3cbwn, read from a bulk pull of
all 12,491 contacts rather than a lookup per person. This is a cross-section, not a
ranking — the best 90 calls on the book would be almost entirely fresh misses in one or
two cells, which cannot tell you whether an owner or a population is the problem.| Signal | Weight | Why it carries that weight |
|---|---|---|
| How fresh the miss is | up to 50 | 0–3 days 50 · 4–7 35 · 8–14 20 · 15–30 8 · older 2. Day 1 is 48% of everything a miss ever returns inside ten days, day 3 is 71%, day 7 is 92%. /opening-payment, 16 Sep 2026 |
| How deep the run is | up to 25 | 1 miss 25 · 2 misses 12 · 3 misses 5 · zombie 0. After one miss the next charge is paid 44.0%; after two, 23.5%. measured 17 Sep 2026 |
| Whether anyone has asked | up to 20 | Not in the GHL at all 20 · in it but unowned 15 · owned 5. Someone outside the sub-account cannot be texted by any workflow, so a call is the only channel that exists for them. |
| Has paid us before | 10 | A proven payer has a relationship to call on. Someone who has never paid a cent is a sale that never started — still worth the call, but the script should not assume a customer. |
| The amount | up to 15, capped | Deliberately last and deliberately capped. Uncapped, a large balance drags three-week-old misses above fresh ones and the list quietly becomes a rich-list instead of a recovery list. |
assignedTo is current state — it
says who holds the record today, not who has or has not worked it. Use it to decide who picks up the phone, never
to decide who let it go.scripts/reports/report_call_list.js at 2026-09-17T13:59:39.630Z.