Share:

The opening payment — three outcomes, and what each is worth

First instalment of the recurring series · 27,864 agreements opened 2023-11-30 → 2026-09-20 · every figure age-matched, with its own n
Missed — never recovered
33.4%
Missed — back within 10 days
8.4%
Paid first time
58.2%
A recovered miss is worth this much of a clean payer, by day 365
88%

The split

11,646 of 27,864 agreements (41.8%) miss the opening instalment. Of those, 2,350 (20.2%) are back within 10 days.

Opening instalmentAgreementsShare of allBanked by day 365Mediann with 365 days behind it
Missed — never recovered9,2969,296 33.4%$243$05,286
Missed — recovered within 10 days2,3502,350 8.4%$1,164$8541,251
Paid first time16,21816,218 58.2%$1,326$1,05710,408

What happens to the ones we recover inside 10 days

This is the question the whole page exists for. By day 365 a recovered miss banks $1,164 (n = 1,251) against $1,326 for an agreement that paid first time (n = 10,408) and $243 for one we never got back (n = 5,286). So catching the miss inside 10 days is worth $921 per agreement against letting it go, and recovers 88% of a clean payer.

Measured atMissed, never recoveredRecovered ≤10dPaid first timeMiss as % of paidRecovered as % of paidn (paid)
Day 30$18$303$2826%108%15,748
Day 60$52$430$41712%103%15,233
Day 90$82$537$55415%97%14,753
Day 120$107$632$67616%94%14,280
Day 150$130$718$78817%91%13,830
Day 180$153$799$89317%89%13,322
Day 270$200$1,027$1,16817%88%11,925
Day 365$243$1,164$1,32618%88%10,408

Row detail is in the CSV, never on this page — agreements.csv.

Average banked per agreement, by day

This is the scale that lets young accounts count. An agreement only appears in a column it has actually lived long enough to fill — an account opened three weeks ago is in the day-30 column and nowhere else. Nothing is thrown away for being incomplete, and nothing is counted at 365 days as though it had collected nothing. Each cell prints its own n, and a cell with fewer than 25 agreements is left blank rather than shown as noise.

Opening instalmentAgreementsby day 30by day 60by day 90by day 120by day 150by day 180by day 270by day 365
Missed — never recovered9,296$18
med $0 · n 8,979
$52
med $0 · n 8,656
$82
med $0 · n 8,339
$107
med $0 · n 7,981
$130
med $0 · n 7,615
$153
med $0 · n 7,280
$200
med $0 · n 6,453
$243
med $0 · n 5,286
Missed — recovered within 10 days2,350$303
med $225 · n 2,251
$430
med $320 · n 2,144
$537
med $417 · n 2,053
$632
med $495 · n 1,940
$718
med $535 · n 1,847
$799
med $600 · n 1,764
$1,027
med $775 · n 1,477
$1,164
med $854 · n 1,251
Paid first time16,218$282
med $240 · n 15,748
$417
med $371 · n 15,233
$554
med $500 · n 14,753
$676
med $595 · n 14,280
$788
med $676 · n 13,830
$893
med $775 · n 13,322
$1,168
med $957 · n 11,925
$1,326
med $1,057 · n 10,408

The same, excluding the opening payment itself

A clean payer starts one instalment ahead by definition. Strip the opening charge out of all three groups and what is left is purely what happened afterwards — if the gap survives here, it is behaviour and not arithmetic.

Opening instalmentAgreementsby day 30by day 60by day 90by day 120by day 150by day 180by day 270by day 365
Missed — never recovered9,296$18
med $0 · n 8,979
$52
med $0 · n 8,656
$82
med $0 · n 8,339
$107
med $0 · n 7,981
$130
med $0 · n 7,615
$153
med $0 · n 7,280
$200
med $0 · n 6,453
$243
med $0 · n 5,286
Missed — recovered within 10 days2,350$303
med $225 · n 2,251
$430
med $320 · n 2,144
$537
med $417 · n 2,053
$632
med $495 · n 1,940
$718
med $535 · n 1,847
$799
med $600 · n 1,764
$1,027
med $775 · n 1,477
$1,164
med $854 · n 1,251
Paid first time16,218$50
med $0 · n 15,748
$186
med $176 · n 15,233
$322
med $275 · n 14,753
$444
med $388 · n 14,280
$556
med $480 · n 13,830
$659
med $535 · n 13,322
$933
med $744 · n 11,925
$1,090
med $838 · n 10,408

Split by how old the account is

A band like “under six months” mixes a five-month-old April cohort with a two-week-old September one and tells you nothing about either. So this is every opening month against the horizons it has actually reached — average banked per agreement, blank where that month has not lived long enough or has fewer than 25 agreements at that horizon. The last column says how far each cohort can honestly be read.

Month openedAgreementsPaid first timeday 30day 60day 90day 120day 150day 180day 270day 365Readable
2026-0948156.5%too young
2026-0897252.1%$172to day 30
2026-0794756.3%$149$247to day 60
2026-0699251.0%$189$254$337to day 90
2026-0582249.3%$140$232$315$415to day 120
2026-041,02252.3%$186$251$334$409$511to day 150
2026-0392356.8%$158$263$351$439$510$591to day 180
2026-0282356.6%$283$382$479$543$615$656to day 180
2026-0184952.8%$167$343$422$497$537$609to day 180
2025-1288653.2%$144$256$373$425$495$565$729to day 270
2025-1187553.6%$201$258$355$474$521$599$783to day 270
2025-1093351.8%$149$249$340$428$509$587$779to day 270
2025-0993050.3%$186$243$325$408$478$550$725$845to day 365
2025-0880550.8%$159$257$347$425$498$571$763$885to day 365
2025-0788352.7%$151$257$364$449$529$602$798$913to day 365
2025-0689050.9%$220$259$347$421$496$565$732$842to day 365
2025-0594455.5%$155$267$367$457$533$609$798$912to day 365
2025-041,00052.0%$204$263$353$441$515$585$769$877to day 365
2025-0393257.8%$185$310$429$529$614$695$893$1,002to day 365
2025-0279860.7%$276$391$492$539$648$685$903$1,036to day 365
2025-0173057.0%$184$394$428$520$599$680$896$1,011to day 365
2024-1275556.8%$192$335$457$542$634$718$915$1,025to day 365
2024-1182157.1%$234$289$397$516$581$663$865$971to day 365
2024-1079958.1%$193$305$406$499$590$670$867$975to day 365
2024-0977558.6%$227$285$395$492$571$649$844$950to day 365
2024-0876061.3%$174$292$403$502$596$683$895$1,010to day 365
2024-0769057.8%$175$306$419$520$621$707$928$1,043to day 365
2024-0692949.5%$172$252$346$422$499$564$738$838to day 365
2024-0593652.4%$159$253$339$412$481$546$702$816to day 365
2024-0466386.3%$311$387$509$622$733$823$1,060$1,231to day 365
2024-0359493.9%$249$387$516$624$719$812$1,048$1,211to day 365
2024-0257091.2%$344$424$546$609$695$778$982$1,119to day 365
2024-0156691.3%$249$402$499$593$686$772$972$1,119to day 365
2023-1251092.7%$285$419$536$641$734$819$1,036$1,166to day 365
2023-115988.1%$215$359$490$636$759$834$1,012$1,164to day 365

The same, grouped into age bands

Anything under three months is shown but should not be read as an outcome — it has barely started.

Account ageOpening instalmentShare of bandby day 30by day 60by day 90by day 120by day 150by day 180by day 270by day 365
Under 3 months (too young to read)Missed — never recovered971 35.1%$10 n 654$34 n 331
Under 3 months (too young to read)Missed — recovered within 10 days304 11.0%$260 n 205$371 n 98
Under 3 months (too young to read)Paid first time1,488 53.9%$243 n 1,018$372 n 503
3 to 6 monthsMissed — never recovered1,059 38.1%$19 n 1,059$45 n 1,059$69 n 1,059$91 n 715$118 n 349
3 to 6 monthsMissed — recovered within 10 days293 10.5%$256 n 293$365 n 293$454 n 293$523 n 187$578 n 94
3 to 6 monthsPaid first time1,430 51.4%$262 n 1,430$368 n 1,430$492 n 1,430$621 n 980$731 n 530
6 to 12 monthsMissed — never recovered1,980 36.8%$18 n 1,980$51 n 1,980$78 n 1,980$99 n 1,980$115 n 1,980$136 n 1,980$168 n 1,167
6 to 12 monthsMissed — recovered within 10 days502 9.3%$269 n 502$397 n 502$492 n 502$575 n 502$651 n 502$723 n 502$957 n 226
6 to 12 monthsPaid first time2,892 53.8%$279 n 2,892$431 n 2,892$573 n 2,892$695 n 2,892$791 n 2,892$890 n 2,892$1,183 n 1,517
1 year or olderMissed — never recovered5,286 31.2%$19 n 5,286$54 n 5,286$85 n 5,286$113 n 5,286$137 n 5,286$160 n 5,286$207 n 5,286$243 n 5,286
1 year or olderMissed — recovered within 10 days1,251 7.4%$335 n 1,251$464 n 1,251$576 n 1,251$672 n 1,251$756 n 1,251$833 n 1,251$1,039 n 1,251$1,164 n 1,251
1 year or olderPaid first time10,408 61.4%$289 n 10,408$421 n 10,408$557 n 10,408$676 n 10,408$791 n 10,408$894 n 10,408$1,166 n 10,408$1,326 n 10,408

Every opening month, so you can see it is not one odd cohort

Month openedAgreementsMissed, never recoveredRecovered ≤10dPaid first time
2023-11596 10.2%1 1.7%52 88.1%
2023-1251023 4.5%14 2.7%473 92.7%
2024-0156636 6.4%13 2.3%517 91.3%
2024-0257028 4.9%22 3.9%520 91.2%
2024-0359419 3.2%17 2.9%558 93.9%
2024-0466355 8.3%36 5.4%572 86.3%
2024-05936378 40.4%68 7.3%490 52.4%
2024-06929406 43.7%63 6.8%460 49.5%
2024-07690236 34.2%55 8.0%399 57.8%
2024-08760230 30.3%64 8.4%466 61.3%
2024-09775248 32.0%73 9.4%454 58.6%
2024-10799272 34.0%63 7.9%464 58.1%
2024-11821270 32.9%82 10.0%469 57.1%
2024-12755251 33.2%75 9.9%429 56.8%
2025-01730259 35.5%55 7.5%416 57.0%
2025-02798253 31.7%61 7.6%484 60.7%
2025-03932315 33.8%78 8.4%539 57.8%
2025-041,000395 39.5%85 8.5%520 52.0%
2025-05944334 35.4%86 9.1%524 55.5%
2025-06890374 42.0%63 7.1%453 50.9%
2025-07883353 40.0%65 7.4%465 52.7%
2025-08805328 40.7%68 8.4%409 50.8%
2025-09930387 41.6%75 8.1%468 50.3%
2025-10933388 41.6%62 6.6%483 51.8%
2025-11875346 39.5%60 6.9%469 53.6%
2025-12886330 37.2%85 9.6%471 53.2%
2026-01849304 35.8%97 11.4%448 52.8%
2026-02823261 31.7%96 11.7%466 56.6%
2026-03923290 31.4%109 11.8%524 56.8%
2026-041,022393 38.5%95 9.3%534 52.3%
2026-05822342 41.6%75 9.1%405 49.3%
2026-06992356 35.9%130 13.1%506 51.0%
2026-07947316 33.4%98 10.3%533 56.3%
2026-08972357 36.7%109 11.2%506 52.1%
2026-09481157 32.6%52 10.8%272 56.5%

By city

CityAgreementsMissed, never recoveredRecovered ≤10dPaid first timeAvg banked by day 365
Texas8,7813,138 35.7%698 7.9%4,945 56.3%$921 n 5,660
New York7,0652,419 34.2%532 7.5%4,114 58.2%$979 n 5,143
Florida4,3911,370 31.2%408 9.3%2,613 59.5%$1,064 n 2,459
Boston3,379897 26.5%261 7.7%2,221 65.7%$1,032 n 2,334
Nashville2,667899 33.7%281 10.5%1,487 55.8%$943 n 1,319
Chicago1,581573 36.2%170 10.8%838 53.0%$779 n 30

How this is built

The opening instalment is a customer’s first charge on the RECURRING book. Studio deposits and studio-sale payments are excluded outright — a card handed over at a till is a different event from a stored card charged a month later with nobody present.

The three groups. Paid first time = the opening charge completed. Recovered = it failed but money was banked within 10 days. Never recovered = it failed and nothing came in inside that window — note this does not mean the agreement never paid again, only that the opening miss was not caught quickly.

Age-matching is the whole method. Collection is counted from each agreement’s own opening date, and an agreement enters a horizon only if it has that many days of runway behind it. Without this, a young account looks like a total loss at 365 days when in truth the 365th day has not happened yet — and every recent cohort would drag the averages down.

Lookback 6 months. A charge only counts as an opening if nothing was seen from that customer in the preceding 6 months, so the earliest opening this report can judge is 2023-11-30.

Why not the CRM finance schedule. schedules.json was fetched 2026-08-07 and its newest line is 2026-08-06, so it cannot see the youngest accounts at all — the opposite of what was asked for. It also files refunds and chargebacks as payment_debit rows (“Refund” 996, “Chargeback” 1,571), so a naive sum counts money going out as money collected. Square is current to 2026-09-20 and cleanly typed.

Read this run: 491,465 raw lines, 28,345 repeat payment ids dropped, 187,228 non-recurring charges excluded, 22,271 with no customer id — leaving 253,621 recurring charges spanning 2023-06-01 → 2026-09-20, and 27,864 judgeable openings.